Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision favor no change at 62.5 percent versus a 38 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. Persistent headline CPI near 3 percent, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, has lifted inflation concerns and prompted some market participants to price in an earlier tightening move. However, core measures remain anchored near 2 percent with limited energy pass-through evident in August data, while Q2 GDP strength has been offset by fresh U.S. tariff uncertainty that clouds growth prospects. The September 2 hold at 2.25 percent and economist consensus for steady policy through year-end reinforce the modest edge for no change, though upcoming labor and inflation prints before the Monetary Policy Report could shift the balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessuna modifica 63.3%
Aumento di 25 punti base 37.5%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
$90,896 Vol.
$90,896 Vol.
27 ott 2026
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Aumento di 25 punti base
38%
Nessuna modifica
63%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
<1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessuna modifica 63.3%
Aumento di 25 punti base 37.5%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
$90,896 Vol.
$90,896 Vol.
27 ott 2026
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$11,509 Vol.
<1%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$23,564 Vol.
38%
Nessuna modifica
$36,679 Vol.
63%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$15,055 Vol.
<1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision favor no change at 62.5 percent versus a 38 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. Persistent headline CPI near 3 percent, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, has lifted inflation concerns and prompted some market participants to price in an earlier tightening move. However, core measures remain anchored near 2 percent with limited energy pass-through evident in August data, while Q2 GDP strength has been offset by fresh U.S. tariff uncertainty that clouds growth prospects. The September 2 hold at 2.25 percent and economist consensus for steady policy through year-end reinforce the modest edge for no change, though upcoming labor and inflation prints before the Monetary Policy Report could shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$90,896Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision favor no change at 62.5 percent versus a 38 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. Persistent headline CPI near 3 percent, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, has lifted inflation concerns and prompted some market participants to price in an earlier tightening move. However, core measures remain anchored near 2 percent with limited energy pass-through evident in August data, while Q2 GDP strength has been offset by fresh U.S. tariff uncertainty that clouds growth prospects. The September 2 hold at 2.25 percent and economist consensus for steady policy through year-end reinforce the modest edge for no change, though upcoming labor and inflation prints before the Monetary Policy Report could shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$90,896Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision favor no change at 62.5 percent versus a 38 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting trader assessment of balanced risks. Persistent headline CPI near 3 percent, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, has lifted inflation concerns and prompted some market participants to price in an earlier tightening move. However, core measures remain anchored near 2 percent with limited energy pass-through evident in August data, while Q2 GDP strength has been offset by fresh U.S. tariff uncertainty that clouds growth prospects. The September 2 hold at 2.25 percent and economist consensus for steady policy through year-end reinforce the modest edge for no change, though upcoming labor and inflation prints before the Monetary Policy Report could shift the balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
La Banca del Canada manterrà invariato il tasso target per il tasso overnight nell'annuncio dei tassi di interesse di dicembre?
54%
Sì
Nessuna variazione nei tassi di interesse della Banca del Messico dopo la riunione di settembre 2026?
98%
Sì
Nessuna variazione nei tassi d'interesse della Banca del Messico dopo la riunione di novembre 2026?
91%
Sì
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