Following the Liberals' victory in the April 2025 federal election, where Mark Carney's party secured 169 House of Commons seats with 44% of the vote, recent polls have solidified their commanding position ahead of the next contest. Abacus Data's May 13 tracking shows Liberals at 46% versus Conservatives at 36%, a 10-point edge, while Nanos, Ipsos, Léger, and 338Canada aggregates report Liberal leads of 9–14 points nationally and in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Government approval has hit a record 57%, reflecting steady support amid no major Conservative momentum or backlash. Traders' 91.5% implied probability on "No" captures this entrenched Liberal polling dominance in seat projections, with the next election not due until 2029 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Following the Liberals' victory in the April 2025 federal election, where Mark Carney's party secured 169 House of Commons seats with 44% of the vote, recent polls have solidified their commanding position ahead of the next contest. Abacus Data's May 13 tracking shows Liberals at 46% versus Conservatives at 36%, a 10-point edge, while Nanos, Ipsos, Léger, and 338Canada aggregates report Liberal leads of 9–14 points nationally and in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Government approval has hit a record 57%, reflecting steady support amid no major Conservative momentum or backlash. Traders' 91.5% implied probability on "No" captures this entrenched Liberal polling dominance in seat projections, with the next election not due until 2029 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Mercato aperto: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$4,646Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Following the Liberals' victory in the April 2025 federal election, where Mark Carney's party secured 169 House of Commons seats with 44% of the vote, recent polls have solidified their commanding position ahead of the next contest. Abacus Data's May 13 tracking shows Liberals at 46% versus Conservatives at 36%, a 10-point edge, while Nanos, Ipsos, Léger, and 338Canada aggregates report Liberal leads of 9–14 points nationally and in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Government approval has hit a record 57%, reflecting steady support amid no major Conservative momentum or backlash. Traders' 91.5% implied probability on "No" captures this entrenched Liberal polling dominance in seat projections, with the next election not due until 2029 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$4,646Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the Liberals' victory in the April 2025 federal election, where Mark Carney's party secured 169 House of Commons seats with 44% of the vote, recent polls have solidified their commanding position ahead of the next contest. Abacus Data's May 13 tracking shows Liberals at 46% versus Conservatives at 36%, a 10-point edge, while Nanos, Ipsos, Léger, and 338Canada aggregates report Liberal leads of 9–14 points nationally and in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Government approval has hit a record 57%, reflecting steady support amid no major Conservative momentum or backlash. Traders' 91.5% implied probability on "No" captures this entrenched Liberal polling dominance in seat projections, with the next election not due until 2029 barring a snap vote or no-confidence motion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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