Eduardo Paes maintains a dominant position in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him over 93 percent implied probability ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. His consistent leads in recent polling—often 34 to 60 percent depending on the scenario—stem from his prior terms as Rio mayor, timely resignation in March 2026 to focus on the state contest, and active coalition-building across parties and regions. Lower-priced alternatives such as Colonel Busnello, Anthony Garotinho, and Douglas Ruas trail significantly. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, health-related withdrawals, decisive shifts in legislative alliances, or unexpectedly strong debate performances by challengers that consolidate opposition support before election day.