Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula holding narrow leads of two to five points in most surveys released in mid-September. Aggregators place Lula near 39 percent and Flávio near 36 percent, inside margins of error, while smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos split the remainder and prevent either frontrunner from approaching a majority. The narrowing gap, visible in successive Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Futura releases, stems from sustained polarization, limited movement among undecided voters, and the absence of decisive late-campaign events that would widen the spread. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a first-round margin under five points for the eventual leader.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Lula da Silva <5% 52%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 29.3%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 6.2%
$521,705 Vol.
$521,705 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
<1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
2%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
52%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
29%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
<1%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Altro
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 52%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 29.3%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 6.2%
$521,705 Vol.
$521,705 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$21,601 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$49,377 Vol.
2%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$51,947 Vol.
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
$52,954 Vol.
52%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$28,745 Vol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$28,846 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$35,255 Vol.
29%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
$220,225 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
$10,653 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
$10,076 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$12,026 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula holding narrow leads of two to five points in most surveys released in mid-September. Aggregators place Lula near 39 percent and Flávio near 36 percent, inside margins of error, while smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos split the remainder and prevent either frontrunner from approaching a majority. The narrowing gap, visible in successive Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Futura releases, stems from sustained polarization, limited movement among undecided voters, and the absence of decisive late-campaign events that would widen the spread. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a first-round margin under five points for the eventual leader.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$521,705Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula holding narrow leads of two to five points in most surveys released in mid-September. Aggregators place Lula near 39 percent and Flávio near 36 percent, inside margins of error, while smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos split the remainder and prevent either frontrunner from approaching a majority. The narrowing gap, visible in successive Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Futura releases, stems from sustained polarization, limited movement among undecided voters, and the absence of decisive late-campaign events that would widen the spread. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a first-round margin under five points for the eventual leader.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$521,705Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula holding narrow leads of two to five points in most surveys released in mid-September. Aggregators place Lula near 39 percent and Flávio near 36 percent, inside margins of error, while smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos split the remainder and prevent either frontrunner from approaching a majority. The narrowing gap, visible in successive Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Futura releases, stems from sustained polarization, limited movement among undecided voters, and the absence of decisive late-campaign events that would widen the spread. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a first-round margin under five points for the eventual leader.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
85%
Sì
Lula otterrà tra il 41% e il 44% dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
43%
Sì
Renan Santos otterrà tra il 2% e il 4% dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
41%
Sì
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