Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and other firms has placed Augusto Cury (Avante) in third position in first-round vote intention, typically at 3-4% behind the leading pair of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and remaining candidates register lower shares. This positioning has held steady through late September and early October surveys, reflecting limited movement among lower-polling contenders despite earlier gains for Cury tied to media exposure and social-media growth. Traders have priced this outcome at 98.9% implied probability, aligning with the consistent hierarchy shown in final pre-election aggregates. A late surge by another minor candidate or unusually high undecided consolidation could still alter the ranking before results are certified.