Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear frontrunners for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38-42 percent and Flávio at 31-33 percent while other declared candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party nominee, though June audio revelations and a July family dispute briefly pressured Flávio’s numbers before reconciliation. Lula’s campaign has emphasized economic measures such as debt relief and fuel subsidies amid voter concerns over crime and inflation. The October 4 vote and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters will determine which two advance to the October 25 runoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuali candidati avanzeranno al ballottaggio presidenziale brasiliano?
Quali candidati avanzeranno al ballottaggio presidenziale brasiliano?
$474,518 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
90%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
$474,518 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$218,672 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$46,837 Vol.
90%
Renan Santos
$11,342 Vol.
7%
Romeu Zema
$610 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$64,965 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,662 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,290 Vol.
<1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear frontrunners for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38-42 percent and Flávio at 31-33 percent while other declared candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party nominee, though June audio revelations and a July family dispute briefly pressured Flávio’s numbers before reconciliation. Lula’s campaign has emphasized economic measures such as debt relief and fuel subsidies amid voter concerns over crime and inflation. The October 4 vote and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters will determine which two advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$474,518Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear frontrunners for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38-42 percent and Flávio at 31-33 percent while other declared candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party nominee, though June audio revelations and a July family dispute briefly pressured Flávio’s numbers before reconciliation. Lula’s campaign has emphasized economic measures such as debt relief and fuel subsidies amid voter concerns over crime and inflation. The October 4 vote and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters will determine which two advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$474,518Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear frontrunners for the October 4 first round, with Lula at 38-42 percent and Flávio at 31-33 percent while other declared candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party nominee, though June audio revelations and a July family dispute briefly pressured Flávio’s numbers before reconciliation. Lula’s campaign has emphasized economic measures such as debt relief and fuel subsidies amid voter concerns over crime and inflation. The October 4 vote and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters will determine which two advance to the October 25 runoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Qualcuno dei candidati presidenziali vincerà direttamente al primo turno delle elezioni in Brasile?
13%
Sì
Flávio Bolsonaro finirà al secondo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
86%
Sì
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà le elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
67%
Sì
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