Recent August 2026 polls for the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election show the AfD leading with 41-43% support, ahead of the CDU at 22-24% and smaller parties clustered near or below the 5% threshold. In the roughly 83-seat Landtag, an absolute majority requires at least 42 seats. Current surveys project the AfD near but typically short of this mark under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, which accounts for overhang mandates and smaller-party performance. Other parties’ results, especially whether the BSW, FDP, or Greens clear the threshold, remain decisive variables that could alter final seat shares. The AfD’s consistent but sub-majority polling, combined with the structural features of state electoral rules, underpins trader expectations that an outright majority is unlikely.