The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<20% 27%
25-30% 21%
20-25% 20%
30-35% 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
27%
20-25%
20%
25-30%
26%
30-35%
16%
35-40%
15%
40%+
13%
<20% 27%
25-30% 21%
20-25% 20%
30-35% 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
$0 Vol.
27%
20-25%
$20 Vol.
20%
25-30%
$20 Vol.
26%
30-35%
$0 Vol.
16%
35-40%
$0 Vol.
15%
40%+
$20 Vol.
13%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$60Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$60Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation, pitting Labour’s local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who secured the nomination on 10 September and received an endorsement from 2024 independent runner-up Andrew Feinstein. Recent Camden ward results show the Greens narrowing Labour’s lead to single digits in several areas, reflecting local strength on housing, environment, and protest issues that could consolidate left-leaning votes. Traders price Green share outcomes tightly clustered between 20% and 35% because by-election turnout often amplifies opposition swings yet Labour retains structural advantages in a historically safe seat; further separation would likely require clearer polling signals on Polanski’s personal appeal or shifts in national Labour support before nominations close on 15 September.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Laburista otterrà il 30-35% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
26%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 10-15%?
41%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
77%
Sì
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