**Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to "No" on Prince Andrew being sentenced to prison because he remains only under police investigation without charges.** In February 2026, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office after newly released Epstein files suggested he shared confidential UK trade documents with Jeffrey Epstein during his time as a trade envoy. Thames Valley Police released him the same day under ongoing investigation, and as of late May 2026 reports, no charges have been filed despite additional witness appeals. **Conviction on this common-law offense is required before any prison sentence, and such prosecutions are rare even when pursued.** The maximum penalty is life imprisonment, though experts describe shorter terms as more typical if a jury convicts. Structural barriers include the need for sufficient evidence to charge, a successful prosecution, and sentencing—steps that have not advanced in the four months since the arrest. No other active criminal proceedings against him exist that would lead to incarceration. **This leaves substantial uncertainty around whether the case will reach a guilty verdict and sentence, supporting the strong trader consensus against prison time occurring.**
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$216,512 Vol.
$216,512 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$216,512 Vol.
$216,512 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to "No" on Prince Andrew being sentenced to prison because he remains only under police investigation without charges.** In February 2026, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office after newly released Epstein files suggested he shared confidential UK trade documents with Jeffrey Epstein during his time as a trade envoy. Thames Valley Police released him the same day under ongoing investigation, and as of late May 2026 reports, no charges have been filed despite additional witness appeals.
**Conviction on this common-law offense is required before any prison sentence, and such prosecutions are rare even when pursued.** The maximum penalty is life imprisonment, though experts describe shorter terms as more typical if a jury convicts. Structural barriers include the need for sufficient evidence to charge, a successful prosecution, and sentencing—steps that have not advanced in the four months since the arrest. No other active criminal proceedings against him exist that would lead to incarceration.
**This leaves substantial uncertainty around whether the case will reach a guilty verdict and sentence, supporting the strong trader consensus against prison time occurring.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ET
Volume
$216,512Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to "No" on Prince Andrew being sentenced to prison because he remains only under police investigation without charges.** In February 2026, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office after newly released Epstein files suggested he shared confidential UK trade documents with Jeffrey Epstein during his time as a trade envoy. Thames Valley Police released him the same day under ongoing investigation, and as of late May 2026 reports, no charges have been filed despite additional witness appeals.
**Conviction on this common-law offense is required before any prison sentence, and such prosecutions are rare even when pursued.** The maximum penalty is life imprisonment, though experts describe shorter terms as more typical if a jury convicts. Structural barriers include the need for sufficient evidence to charge, a successful prosecution, and sentencing—steps that have not advanced in the four months since the arrest. No other active criminal proceedings against him exist that would lead to incarceration.
**This leaves substantial uncertainty around whether the case will reach a guilty verdict and sentence, supporting the strong trader consensus against prison time occurring.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$216,512Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to "No" on Prince Andrew being sentenced to prison because he remains only under police investigation without charges.** In February 2026, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office after newly released Epstein files suggested he shared confidential UK trade documents with Jeffrey Epstein during his time as a trade envoy. Thames Valley Police released him the same day under ongoing investigation, and as of late May 2026 reports, no charges have been filed despite additional witness appeals. **Conviction on this common-law offense is required before any prison sentence, and such prosecutions are rare even when pursued.** The maximum penalty is life imprisonment, though experts describe shorter terms as more typical if a jury convicts. Structural barriers include the need for sufficient evidence to charge, a successful prosecution, and sentencing—steps that have not advanced in the four months since the arrest. No other active criminal proceedings against him exist that would lead to incarceration. **This leaves substantial uncertainty around whether the case will reach a guilty verdict and sentence, supporting the strong trader consensus against prison time occurring.**
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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