**Bipartisan Senate opposition and political risks anchor trader expectations against a pardon.** In late July 2026, the Senate unanimously approved a non-binding resolution stating that Ghislaine Maxwell should serve her full 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking minors tied to Jeffrey Epstein and receive no presidential pardon, commutation, or clemency. The measure, introduced earlier by Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), drew support from both parties and explicitly urged President Trump against any executive relief. Maxwell has continued seeking clemency, with reports of appeals linked to offers of testimony, and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has interviewed her without recommending relief. Trump has stated he has not seriously considered the matter and would consult the Department of Justice, without ruling it out entirely. With roughly four months remaining until the market’s December 31, 2026 deadline, the combination of unified congressional signaling, the nature of the underlying offenses, and absence of any concrete movement toward clemency has produced the strong market consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability on “No.”