Rafael López Aliaga leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral race as the first regidor on the Renovación Popular ticket, with voter intention around 20% compared to roughly 17% for Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú and single digits for Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones recently confirmed his eligibility to run despite prior objections tied to his senator-elect status, clearing the path for his list to potentially secure the mayoralty. Traders appear to price in this polling edge and institutional resolution as the dominant drivers of the 62% implied probability for López Aliaga, while lower shares for Bruce and the long list of other candidates reflect their trailing positions and limited momentum in the final weeks before the vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRafael López Aliaga 64.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 33.5%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,972 Vol.
$147,972 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
64%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
30%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 64.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 33.5%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,972 Vol.
$147,972 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
64%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
30%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral race as the first regidor on the Renovación Popular ticket, with voter intention around 20% compared to roughly 17% for Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú and single digits for Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and others. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones recently confirmed his eligibility to run despite prior objections tied to his senator-elect status, clearing the path for his list to potentially secure the mayoralty. Traders appear to price in this polling edge and institutional resolution as the dominant drivers of the 62% implied probability for López Aliaga, while lower shares for Bruce and the long list of other candidates reflect their trailing positions and limited momentum in the final weeks before the vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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