Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular holds the strongest position in the Lima mayoral race ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling averages from firms such as CPI and IEP, where he registers roughly double the support of his nearest rival. His prior term as mayor, high name recognition, and the party's strong local organization underpin trader assessments, even as he appears on the ballot as first regidor rather than mayoral candidate. Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú follows as the clearest alternative, drawing support in higher-income segments and among some centrist voters. Lower probabilities for Daniel Urresti, Francis Allison, Susel Paredes, and the remaining field align with their single-digit polling shares and limited momentum in the final month. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones' early September confirmation of López Aliaga's regidor candidacy removed a key procedural hurdle and reinforced expectations that his list could secure the mayoralty through standard succession rules if the top candidate steps aside.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRafael López Aliaga 70.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 28.9%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.5%
$147,060 Vol.
$147,060 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
70%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
23%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 70.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 28.9%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.5%
$147,060 Vol.
$147,060 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
70%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
23%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular holds the strongest position in the Lima mayoral race ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling averages from firms such as CPI and IEP, where he registers roughly double the support of his nearest rival. His prior term as mayor, high name recognition, and the party's strong local organization underpin trader assessments, even as he appears on the ballot as first regidor rather than mayoral candidate. Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú follows as the clearest alternative, drawing support in higher-income segments and among some centrist voters. Lower probabilities for Daniel Urresti, Francis Allison, Susel Paredes, and the remaining field align with their single-digit polling shares and limited momentum in the final month. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones' early September confirmation of López Aliaga's regidor candidacy removed a key procedural hurdle and reinforced expectations that his list could secure the mayoralty through standard succession rules if the top candidate steps aside.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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