Recent high-profile resignations have driven six UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026 so far or scheduled, aligning with trader consensus favoring six or seven total. Key triggers include Keir Starmer’s September 2026 departure from Holborn and St Pancras (by-election set for 8 October), Nigel Farage’s July resignation from Clacton amid standards scrutiny, Josh Simons stepping aside for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, Andrew Gwynne’s health-related exit from Gorton and Denton, and two Scottish seats vacated after the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. Additional vacancies depend on further MP departures, recalls, or disqualifications before year-end, though no general election is due and procedural timelines limit rapid additions. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing weighs these patterns against historical base rates of mid-term by-elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6 72%
7 23%
8 5.0%
10+ 2.3%
$32,359 Vol.
$32,359 Vol.
≤5
1%
6
72%
7
23%
8
5%
9
1%
10+
2%
6 72%
7 23%
8 5.0%
10+ 2.3%
$32,359 Vol.
$32,359 Vol.
≤5
1%
6
72%
7
23%
8
5%
9
1%
10+
2%
Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 8, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-profile resignations have driven six UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026 so far or scheduled, aligning with trader consensus favoring six or seven total. Key triggers include Keir Starmer’s September 2026 departure from Holborn and St Pancras (by-election set for 8 October), Nigel Farage’s July resignation from Clacton amid standards scrutiny, Josh Simons stepping aside for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, Andrew Gwynne’s health-related exit from Gorton and Denton, and two Scottish seats vacated after the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. Additional vacancies depend on further MP departures, recalls, or disqualifications before year-end, though no general election is due and procedural timelines limit rapid additions. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing weighs these patterns against historical base rates of mid-term by-elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti