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Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto

Flávio Bolsonaro 63%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.6%

Romeu Zema 4.2%

Polymarket

$3,515,953 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 63%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.6%

Romeu Zema 4.2%

Polymarket

$3,515,953 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$56,136 Vol.

63%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$66,992 Vol.

15%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$994,551 Vol.

7%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$256,040 Vol.

4%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$71,011 Vol.

3%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$1,335 Vol.

3%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$651,184 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$55,978 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$123,229 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$288,295 Vol.

1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$29,795 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$111,010 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$642,602 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$48,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$1,956 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$77,333 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$40,470 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls show him consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party ticket after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round edge amid 44-47 percent approval and economic headwinds, positioning Flávio as the clear runner-up in most simulations from firms such as Quaest, Ideia, and Futura. The fragmented field—featuring Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others—keeps right-of-center votes from splitting widely enough to displace Flávio. A May 13 leak tying Flávio to the Banco Master case has not yet shifted the consensus, while Lula’s age and policy pressures continue to limit his margin. Upcoming economic releases and any further candidate withdrawals remain the main near-term variables that could alter these probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,515,953
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls show him consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party ticket after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round edge amid 44-47 percent approval and economic headwinds, positioning Flávio as the clear runner-up in most simulations from firms such as Quaest, Ideia, and Futura. The fragmented field—featuring Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others—keeps right-of-center votes from splitting widely enough to displace Flávio. A May 13 leak tying Flávio to the Banco Master case has not yet shifted the consensus, while Lula’s age and policy pressures continue to limit his margin. Upcoming economic releases and any further candidate withdrawals remain the main near-term variables that could alter these probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,515,953
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 17 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 63%, seguito da "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 14%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 63¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 63% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" ha generato $3.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 11, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto", esplora i 17 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" è "Flávio Bolsonaro" a 63%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 63% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" a 14%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 2° posto" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.