**Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July 2026 into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to financing the film "Dark Horse," with documents unsealed around September 11.** The probe stems from Federal Police inquiries into transfers linked to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master, but no formal charges or arrest have been reported as of mid-September. Brazilian Senate immunity rules and STF procedures typically require additional steps, such as congressional authorization for senators, before detention or indictment can proceed. With only days remaining until the September 30 cutoff and no announced raids, court orders, or prosecutorial actions indicating urgency, traders assign a high probability that neither charging nor arrest will occur in the narrow window. Ongoing campaign activity ahead of the October election further supports expectations of procedural continuity rather than rapid escalation.