Flávio Bolsonaro’s confirmation as the Liberal Party presidential nominee and leading challenger to incumbent President Lula ahead of the October 4 first-round vote drives trader expectations that he will join at least one of the scheduled televised debates by October 3. Multiple debate dates, including August 23 and September 14 and 27, have been set with invitations extended to major candidates, and his July 2026 campaign launch has placed him at the center of opposition efforts. His prior statements tying participation to Lula’s attendance create modest uncertainty, yet historical precedent for frontrunners engaging in pre-election debates and the short timeline to the first round support the current 65% implied probability assigned by market participants.