Lula’s campaign strategy of selective debate participation, driven by his consistent polling lead as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate ahead of the October 4 first round, forms the main driver of current trader consensus. Recent reporting indicates his team has effectively ruled out the August 23 Bandeirantes-organized televised debate, citing concerns over format and the presence of lower-polling candidates, with Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp signaling a similar stance. Multiple additional presidential debates remain scheduled through late September, however, preserving opportunities for a later appearance that would satisfy the market’s resolution criteria by October 3. This balance between confirmed early absences and remaining slots underpins the 61% implied probability for participation in at least one qualifying debate.