Skip to main content
icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia

Lula 89%

Scrittore Augusto Cury 57%

Pablo Marçal 57%

Renan Santos 57%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Lula 89%

Scrittore Augusto Cury 57%

Pablo Marçal 57%

Renan Santos 57%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$664 Vol.

79%

icon for Scrittore Augusto Cury

Scrittore Augusto Cury

$179 Vol.

57%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$179 Vol.

57%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$155 Vol.

57%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$179 Vol.

57%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$175 Vol.

55%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$174 Vol.

55%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$173 Vol.

54%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$179 Vol.

-

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$167 Vol.

-

icon for Samara

Samara

$167 Vol.

-

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$167 Vol.

-

icon for Zema

Zema

$167 Vol.

-

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains an edge in trader consensus for first place in Bahia's first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's longstanding PT stronghold status in the Northeast and the incumbent's consistent regional polling advantages rooted in social program delivery and voter base loyalty. Flávio Bolsonaro leads the right-wing challenge as the Liberal Party nominee, drawing on family-aligned support, while candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos split opposition votes in single digits nationally. Recent party conventions formalizing Lula's ticket with Geraldo Alckmin and confirming Flávio's bid have stabilized positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, with no major Bahia-specific shifts reported in the past month. The tight pricing among viable contenders highlights vote fragmentation risks and the potential for turnout or last-minute regional developments to widen or close gaps in this high-stakes state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,726
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains an edge in trader consensus for first place in Bahia's first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's longstanding PT stronghold status in the Northeast and the incumbent's consistent regional polling advantages rooted in social program delivery and voter base loyalty. Flávio Bolsonaro leads the right-wing challenge as the Liberal Party nominee, drawing on family-aligned support, while candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos split opposition votes in single digits nationally. Recent party conventions formalizing Lula's ticket with Geraldo Alckmin and confirming Flávio's bid have stabilized positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, with no major Bahia-specific shifts reported in the past month. The tight pricing among viable contenders highlights vote fragmentation risks and the potential for turnout or last-minute regional developments to widen or close gaps in this high-stakes state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,726
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Correlati

icon for Edmilson Costa otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraná?

Edmilson Costa otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraná?

44%
Sì
icon for Renan Santos otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

Renan Santos otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

44%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

49%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Lula" a 79%, seguito da "Scrittore Augusto Cury" a 28%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 79¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 79% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 17, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è "Lula" a 79%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 79% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Scrittore Augusto Cury" a 28%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.