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icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins

Lula 68%

Flavio Bolsonaro 33%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$22,909 Vol.

Lula 68%

Flavio Bolsonaro 33%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$22,909 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$5,933 Vol.

68%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$10,851 Vol.

33%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$558 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$542 Vol.

<1%

icon for Scrittore Augusto Cury

Scrittore Augusto Cury

$575 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$342 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,256 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$438 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$432 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinario Wilson Grassi

Veterinario Wilson Grassi

$527 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$448 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a 67.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Tocantins in the October 4 first round, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 32.5%. National polls released in mid-September, including CNT/MDA, show Lula leading Flavio by roughly 10 points in the opening round, bolstered by his incumbency and broader support in key regions. Tocantins-specific surveys present a closer picture, with an August Real Time poll showing a statistical tie at 36% each and a September Veritá survey giving Flavio a narrow 45% to 40% edge on valid votes. Traders appear to weigh national momentum and Lula’s established base more heavily than localized right-leaning sentiment in the state, where other candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado register only low single digits. The tight national race and upcoming first-round vote keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or regional polling.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,909
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a 67.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Tocantins in the October 4 first round, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 32.5%. National polls released in mid-September, including CNT/MDA, show Lula leading Flavio by roughly 10 points in the opening round, bolstered by his incumbency and broader support in key regions. Tocantins-specific surveys present a closer picture, with an August Real Time poll showing a statistical tie at 36% each and a September Veritá survey giving Flavio a narrow 45% to 40% edge on valid votes. Traders appear to weigh national momentum and Lula’s established base more heavily than localized right-leaning sentiment in the state, where other candidates like Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado register only low single digits. The tight national race and upcoming first-round vote keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or regional polling.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,909
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

77%
Sì
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

93%
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane a Santa Catarina?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane a Santa Catarina?

97%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Lula" a 68%, seguito da "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 33%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 68¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins" ha generato $22.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Aug 17, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins" è "Lula" a 68%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 33%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Tocantins" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.