Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect the sharp slowdown evident in the 0.5% QoQ expansion for Q2, released September 1, following a stronger 1.1% print in Q1. Restrictive monetary policy remains the dominant drag, with the Selic rate at 14% after successive 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real borrowing costs elevated and curbing private consumption and investment. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has eased some pressure and reinforced bets on further easing, yet early indicators point to near-flat or marginally negative sequential growth amid softening domestic demand. Commodity and agricultural support provides a partial offset, but services and manufacturing momentum has faded. The closely matched market-implied odds around 0% highlight uncertainty over whether recent data revisions and any September activity can lift the outcome above zero or push it into contraction territory before the December release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato-0,3% a -0,1% 30%
0,0% a 0,2% 29%
0,6% a 0,8% 14%
<-0,3% 10.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
10%
-0,3% a -0,1%
30%
0,0% a 0,2%
29%
0,3% a 0,5%
6%
0,6% a 0,8%
14%
0,9% a 1,1%
10%
≥1,2%
1%
-0,3% a -0,1% 30%
0,0% a 0,2% 29%
0,6% a 0,8% 14%
<-0,3% 10.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
$131 Vol.
10%
-0,3% a -0,1%
$2,056 Vol.
30%
0,0% a 0,2%
$6,216 Vol.
29%
0,3% a 0,5%
$189 Vol.
6%
0,6% a 0,8%
$133 Vol.
14%
0,9% a 1,1%
$134 Vol.
10%
≥1,2%
$121 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect the sharp slowdown evident in the 0.5% QoQ expansion for Q2, released September 1, following a stronger 1.1% print in Q1. Restrictive monetary policy remains the dominant drag, with the Selic rate at 14% after successive 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real borrowing costs elevated and curbing private consumption and investment. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has eased some pressure and reinforced bets on further easing, yet early indicators point to near-flat or marginally negative sequential growth amid softening domestic demand. Commodity and agricultural support provides a partial offset, but services and manufacturing momentum has faded. The closely matched market-implied odds around 0% highlight uncertainty over whether recent data revisions and any September activity can lift the outcome above zero or push it into contraction territory before the December release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$8,979Data di fine
2 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect the sharp slowdown evident in the 0.5% QoQ expansion for Q2, released September 1, following a stronger 1.1% print in Q1. Restrictive monetary policy remains the dominant drag, with the Selic rate at 14% after successive 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real borrowing costs elevated and curbing private consumption and investment. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has eased some pressure and reinforced bets on further easing, yet early indicators point to near-flat or marginally negative sequential growth amid softening domestic demand. Commodity and agricultural support provides a partial offset, but services and manufacturing momentum has faded. The closely matched market-implied odds around 0% highlight uncertainty over whether recent data revisions and any September activity can lift the outcome above zero or push it into contraction territory before the December release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$8,979Data di fine
2 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect the sharp slowdown evident in the 0.5% QoQ expansion for Q2, released September 1, following a stronger 1.1% print in Q1. Restrictive monetary policy remains the dominant drag, with the Selic rate at 14% after successive 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real borrowing costs elevated and curbing private consumption and investment. Cooling August inflation to 4.22% year-over-year has eased some pressure and reinforced bets on further easing, yet early indicators point to near-flat or marginally negative sequential growth amid softening domestic demand. Commodity and agricultural support provides a partial offset, but services and manufacturing momentum has faded. The closely matched market-implied odds around 0% highlight uncertainty over whether recent data revisions and any September activity can lift the outcome above zero or push it into contraction territory before the December release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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