Robust consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private economists project real U.S. GDP expanding 2.2% to 2.5% for full-year 2026, backed by first-half data showing annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient business investment, AI-driven productivity gains, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act. Traders assign a 96% implied probability to positive annual growth because these factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and slower consumer spending, aligning with historical base rates that make outright contraction rare outside severe shocks. Potential tail risks include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt policy reversals that could tip quarterly readings negative, though such scenarios appear insufficient to reverse the full-year consensus at current market-implied odds.