Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.4% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth for full-year 2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum evidenced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid solid consumer spending and business investment. Forecasts from Deloitte, S&P Global, and Vanguard cluster around 2.2-2.3% for the year, supported by a cooling inflation trajectory and steady labor market conditions, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late April amid solid activity. Upside conviction stems from this soft-landing narrative, though shocks like renewed inflation pressures, geopolitical disruptions, or abrupt consumer pullback could challenge the outlook ahead of Q2 GDP data in July.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$26,330 Vol.
$26,330 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$26,330 Vol.
$26,330 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.4% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth for full-year 2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum evidenced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid solid consumer spending and business investment. Forecasts from Deloitte, S&P Global, and Vanguard cluster around 2.2-2.3% for the year, supported by a cooling inflation trajectory and steady labor market conditions, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late April amid solid activity. Upside conviction stems from this soft-landing narrative, though shocks like renewed inflation pressures, geopolitical disruptions, or abrupt consumer pullback could challenge the outlook ahead of Q2 GDP data in July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,330Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.4% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth for full-year 2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum evidenced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid solid consumer spending and business investment. Forecasts from Deloitte, S&P Global, and Vanguard cluster around 2.2-2.3% for the year, supported by a cooling inflation trajectory and steady labor market conditions, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late April amid solid activity. Upside conviction stems from this soft-landing narrative, though shocks like renewed inflation pressures, geopolitical disruptions, or abrupt consumer pullback could challenge the outlook ahead of Q2 GDP data in July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,330Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.4% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth for full-year 2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum evidenced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid solid consumer spending and business investment. Forecasts from Deloitte, S&P Global, and Vanguard cluster around 2.2-2.3% for the year, supported by a cooling inflation trajectory and steady labor market conditions, with the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late April amid solid activity. Upside conviction stems from this soft-landing narrative, though shocks like renewed inflation pressures, geopolitical disruptions, or abrupt consumer pullback could challenge the outlook ahead of Q2 GDP data in July.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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