Robust US economic momentum, fueled by AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and steady business investment, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative full-year 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the Federal Reserve, OECD, and private analysts project 2.0–2.7% real GDP expansion for the year, supported by Q3 2026 nowcasts near 2.7% and positive quarterly readings through mid-year amid a labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Elevated but sticky inflation has prompted expectations of additional Fed tightening, yet domestic demand remains firm without signs of contraction. Tail risks include sharper energy price spikes from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt AI investment pullback, though current data releases show limited scope for a full-year decline.