Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Banca del Brasile a giugno?
Decisione della Banca del Brasile a giugno?
Riduzione 76%
Nessuna variazione 23.9%
Aumento <1%
$140,217 Vol.
$140,217 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Aumento
1%
Nessuna variazione
24%
Riduzione
76%
Riduzione 76%
Nessuna variazione 23.9%
Aumento <1%
$140,217 Vol.
$140,217 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Aumento
$41,318 Vol.
1%
Nessuna variazione
$36,461 Vol.
24%
Riduzione
$62,438 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$140,217Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$140,217Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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