Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to constrain vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG trade. Recent limited transits, including Iranian state media reports of about 30 vessels passing since mid-May and select Chinese-linked tankers, have eased some supply fears and kept Brent crude near $106–108 per barrel. Persistent low traffic levels—well below pre-crisis averages—reflect ongoing risks of attacks, seizures, and regulatory hurdles, supporting elevated tanker rates and drawing down global inventories at an accelerated pace. Traders are monitoring U.S.-China diplomatic efforts and potential further openings ahead of the May 31 resolution, as any sustained increase in daily transits could materially ease oil price pressures and shift market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$471,846 Vol.
20+
48%
40+
18%
60+
8%
80+
4%
$471,846 Vol.
20+
48%
40+
18%
60+
8%
80+
4%
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to constrain vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG trade. Recent limited transits, including Iranian state media reports of about 30 vessels passing since mid-May and select Chinese-linked tankers, have eased some supply fears and kept Brent crude near $106–108 per barrel. Persistent low traffic levels—well below pre-crisis averages—reflect ongoing risks of attacks, seizures, and regulatory hurdles, supporting elevated tanker rates and drawing down global inventories at an accelerated pace. Traders are monitoring U.S.-China diplomatic efforts and potential further openings ahead of the May 31 resolution, as any sustained increase in daily transits could materially ease oil price pressures and shift market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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