Ongoing US sanctions enforcement under the "Economic Fury" campaign, combined with a naval blockade restricting Iran's oil exports, continues to pressure the rial amid the broader Middle East conflict. The open-market exchange rate has hovered near 1.81 million IRR per USD in mid-May, following record lows above 1.8 million earlier in the spring driven by reduced trade flows with partners like China and elevated inflation expectations. Recent Treasury designations targeting shadow banking networks and exchange houses have widened the gap between official and parallel rates, while IMF projections of a 6.1% economic contraction in 2026 reinforce trader expectations of further short-term depreciation. With the May 31 resolution window now just days away, any incremental sanctions announcements or shifts in crude storage constraints could influence the final level.