Amid stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran following escalated conflict earlier this year, no high-level direct diplomatic meetings have materialized, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for specific outcomes by May 31. Indirect channels persist via Pakistani and Omani mediators, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advancing backchannel discussions after April talks in Islamabad and Muscat. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping in Beijing through May 15 places Iran on the agenda amid leverage over sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi today and tomorrow. Upcoming catalysts include potential trilateral progress or nuclear talks resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$79,708 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Jared Kushner
22%
Steve Witkoff
18%
J.D. Vance
12%
Marco Rubio
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$79,708 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$22,435 Vol.
22%
Steve Witkoff
$19,922 Vol.
18%
J.D. Vance
$22,281 Vol.
12%
Marco Rubio
$5,680 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$9,392 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran following escalated conflict earlier this year, no high-level direct diplomatic meetings have materialized, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for specific outcomes by May 31. Indirect channels persist via Pakistani and Omani mediators, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advancing backchannel discussions after April talks in Islamabad and Muscat. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping in Beijing through May 15 places Iran on the agenda amid leverage over sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi today and tomorrow. Upcoming catalysts include potential trilateral progress or nuclear talks resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$79,708Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran following escalated conflict earlier this year, no high-level direct diplomatic meetings have materialized, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for specific outcomes by May 31. Indirect channels persist via Pakistani and Omani mediators, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advancing backchannel discussions after April talks in Islamabad and Muscat. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping in Beijing through May 15 places Iran on the agenda amid leverage over sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi today and tomorrow. Upcoming catalysts include potential trilateral progress or nuclear talks resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$79,708Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran following escalated conflict earlier this year, no high-level direct diplomatic meetings have materialized, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for specific outcomes by May 31. Indirect channels persist via Pakistani and Omani mediators, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advancing backchannel discussions after April talks in Islamabad and Muscat. President Trump's ongoing summit with China's Xi Jinping in Beijing through May 15 places Iran on the agenda amid leverage over sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi today and tomorrow. Upcoming catalysts include potential trilateral progress or nuclear talks resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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