Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its decisive crackdown on the December 2025–January 2026 nationwide uprisings, which included massacres, internet blackouts, and over two dozen politically motivated executions since March, culminating in three hangings on May 4 for protest-related charges. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28 and ensuing war pressures, hardliners consolidated power through a swift leadership transition, with security forces like the IRGC maintaining control amid economic woes and ceasefire talks. No major unrest has erupted in the past 30 days, leaving scant time for upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden military defections, escalated foreign military action, or a fresh protest wave, though historical resilience favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$19,886,496 Vol.
$19,886,496 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$19,886,496 Vol.
$19,886,496 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its decisive crackdown on the December 2025–January 2026 nationwide uprisings, which included massacres, internet blackouts, and over two dozen politically motivated executions since March, culminating in three hangings on May 4 for protest-related charges. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28 and ensuing war pressures, hardliners consolidated power through a swift leadership transition, with security forces like the IRGC maintaining control amid economic woes and ceasefire talks. No major unrest has erupted in the past 30 days, leaving scant time for upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden military defections, escalated foreign military action, or a fresh protest wave, though historical resilience favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,886,496Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its decisive crackdown on the December 2025–January 2026 nationwide uprisings, which included massacres, internet blackouts, and over two dozen politically motivated executions since March, culminating in three hangings on May 4 for protest-related charges. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28 and ensuing war pressures, hardliners consolidated power through a swift leadership transition, with security forces like the IRGC maintaining control amid economic woes and ceasefire talks. No major unrest has erupted in the past 30 days, leaving scant time for upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden military defections, escalated foreign military action, or a fresh protest wave, though historical resilience favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$19,886,496Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by its decisive crackdown on the December 2025–January 2026 nationwide uprisings, which included massacres, internet blackouts, and over two dozen politically motivated executions since March, culminating in three hangings on May 4 for protest-related charges. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28 and ensuing war pressures, hardliners consolidated power through a swift leadership transition, with security forces like the IRGC maintaining control amid economic woes and ceasefire talks. No major unrest has erupted in the past 30 days, leaving scant time for upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden military defections, escalated foreign military action, or a fresh protest wave, though historical resilience favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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