Persistent strains in US-Iran relations, including the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 and Swiss protection of US interests through its Tehran embassy, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. Recent 2025-2026 negotiations produced an Islamabad Memorandum and temporary ceasefires amid conflict, yet these stopped short of full normalization, with ongoing sanctions, security alerts, and virtual embassy operations signaling limited progress. Historical precedent of severed relations and current procedural hurdles further reinforce expectations. A major diplomatic breakthrough resolving nuclear and regional disputes before year-end remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Sì
5% probabilità
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent strains in US-Iran relations, including the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 and Swiss protection of US interests through its Tehran embassy, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. Recent 2025-2026 negotiations produced an Islamabad Memorandum and temporary ceasefires amid conflict, yet these stopped short of full normalization, with ongoing sanctions, security alerts, and virtual embassy operations signaling limited progress. Historical precedent of severed relations and current procedural hurdles further reinforce expectations. A major diplomatic breakthrough resolving nuclear and regional disputes before year-end remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$158,284Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent strains in US-Iran relations, including the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 and Swiss protection of US interests through its Tehran embassy, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. Recent 2025-2026 negotiations produced an Islamabad Memorandum and temporary ceasefires amid conflict, yet these stopped short of full normalization, with ongoing sanctions, security alerts, and virtual embassy operations signaling limited progress. Historical precedent of severed relations and current procedural hurdles further reinforce expectations. A major diplomatic breakthrough resolving nuclear and regional disputes before year-end remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,284Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent strains in US-Iran relations, including the absence of formal diplomatic ties since 1980 and Swiss protection of US interests through its Tehran embassy, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. Recent 2025-2026 negotiations produced an Islamabad Memorandum and temporary ceasefires amid conflict, yet these stopped short of full normalization, with ongoing sanctions, security alerts, and virtual embassy operations signaling limited progress. Historical precedent of severed relations and current procedural hurdles further reinforce expectations. A major diplomatic breakthrough resolving nuclear and regional disputes before year-end remains a narrow pathway that could still shift probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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