**Congressional approval of any U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement in 2026 faces steep institutional and political barriers.** In mid-June 2026, President Trump announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran to halt hostilities and launch 60-day negotiations on the nuclear program and sanctions relief, triggering obligations under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). That statute requires submission of relevant agreements to Congress for review, yet lawmakers from both parties—particularly Senate Republicans—have signaled strong resistance, demanding verifiable dismantlement of enrichment capacity, resolution of missile and proxy issues, and strict safeguards before any sanctions relief. Negotiations continue amid unresolved disputes over uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits, and IAEA access, while prior military exchanges and differing U.S.-Iranian accounts of the MOU have heightened skepticism. With the 60-day window still open and no final text submitted, the 86% implied probability on “No” reflects trader assessment that partisan divisions, high procedural thresholds for disapproval, and stringent conditions make full congressional approval unlikely before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
$12,347 Vol.
$12,347 Vol.
1 gen 2027
$12,347 Vol.
$12,347 Vol.
1 gen 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Congressional approval of any U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement in 2026 faces steep institutional and political barriers.** In mid-June 2026, President Trump announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran to halt hostilities and launch 60-day negotiations on the nuclear program and sanctions relief, triggering obligations under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). That statute requires submission of relevant agreements to Congress for review, yet lawmakers from both parties—particularly Senate Republicans—have signaled strong resistance, demanding verifiable dismantlement of enrichment capacity, resolution of missile and proxy issues, and strict safeguards before any sanctions relief.
Negotiations continue amid unresolved disputes over uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits, and IAEA access, while prior military exchanges and differing U.S.-Iranian accounts of the MOU have heightened skepticism. With the 60-day window still open and no final text submitted, the 86% implied probability on “No” reflects trader assessment that partisan divisions, high procedural thresholds for disapproval, and stringent conditions make full congressional approval unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,347Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Congressional approval of any U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement in 2026 faces steep institutional and political barriers.** In mid-June 2026, President Trump announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran to halt hostilities and launch 60-day negotiations on the nuclear program and sanctions relief, triggering obligations under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). That statute requires submission of relevant agreements to Congress for review, yet lawmakers from both parties—particularly Senate Republicans—have signaled strong resistance, demanding verifiable dismantlement of enrichment capacity, resolution of missile and proxy issues, and strict safeguards before any sanctions relief.
Negotiations continue amid unresolved disputes over uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits, and IAEA access, while prior military exchanges and differing U.S.-Iranian accounts of the MOU have heightened skepticism. With the 60-day window still open and no final text submitted, the 86% implied probability on “No” reflects trader assessment that partisan divisions, high procedural thresholds for disapproval, and stringent conditions make full congressional approval unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$12,347Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional approval of any U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement in 2026 faces steep institutional and political barriers.** In mid-June 2026, President Trump announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran to halt hostilities and launch 60-day negotiations on the nuclear program and sanctions relief, triggering obligations under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). That statute requires submission of relevant agreements to Congress for review, yet lawmakers from both parties—particularly Senate Republicans—have signaled strong resistance, demanding verifiable dismantlement of enrichment capacity, resolution of missile and proxy issues, and strict safeguards before any sanctions relief. Negotiations continue amid unresolved disputes over uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits, and IAEA access, while prior military exchanges and differing U.S.-Iranian accounts of the MOU have heightened skepticism. With the 60-day window still open and no final text submitted, the 86% implied probability on “No” reflects trader assessment that partisan divisions, high procedural thresholds for disapproval, and stringent conditions make full congressional approval unlikely before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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