Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
10% probabilità
$334,233 Vol.
$334,233 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
10% probabilità
$334,233 Vol.
$334,233 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$334,233Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$334,233Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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