Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid ongoing military tensions. Despite Iranian lawmakers fast-tracking withdrawal bills in late March 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants, and renewed threats reported as recently as early May, no formal notice of intent—required under NPT Article X—or parliamentary approval has materialized. Iran continues IAEA safeguards cooperation per February and April 2026 reports, actively participates in the ongoing NPT Review Conference, and defends its positions diplomatically at the UN, prioritizing national interests over exit amid escalation risks, sanctions, and isolation. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could influence sentiment, but historical patterns since 2004 show threats rarely lead to action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
$121,542 Vol.
$121,542 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$121,542 Vol.
$121,542 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid ongoing military tensions. Despite Iranian lawmakers fast-tracking withdrawal bills in late March 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants, and renewed threats reported as recently as early May, no formal notice of intent—required under NPT Article X—or parliamentary approval has materialized. Iran continues IAEA safeguards cooperation per February and April 2026 reports, actively participates in the ongoing NPT Review Conference, and defends its positions diplomatically at the UN, prioritizing national interests over exit amid escalation risks, sanctions, and isolation. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could influence sentiment, but historical patterns since 2004 show threats rarely lead to action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$121,542Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid ongoing military tensions. Despite Iranian lawmakers fast-tracking withdrawal bills in late March 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants, and renewed threats reported as recently as early May, no formal notice of intent—required under NPT Article X—or parliamentary approval has materialized. Iran continues IAEA safeguards cooperation per February and April 2026 reports, actively participates in the ongoing NPT Review Conference, and defends its positions diplomatically at the UN, prioritizing national interests over exit amid escalation risks, sanctions, and isolation. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could influence sentiment, but historical patterns since 2004 show threats rarely lead to action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,542Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid ongoing military tensions. Despite Iranian lawmakers fast-tracking withdrawal bills in late March 2026 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants, and renewed threats reported as recently as early May, no formal notice of intent—required under NPT Article X—or parliamentary approval has materialized. Iran continues IAEA safeguards cooperation per February and April 2026 reports, actively participates in the ongoing NPT Review Conference, and defends its positions diplomatically at the UN, prioritizing national interests over exit amid escalation risks, sanctions, and isolation. Upcoming IAEA board meetings could influence sentiment, but historical patterns since 2004 show threats rarely lead to action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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