The closely contested 52% implied probability on the ceasefire ending before Netanyahu leaves office reflects a fragile truce between Israel and Iran amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and Israeli political flux. Recent statements from Defense Minister Israel Katz that the “mission is still not complete” and warnings of potential resumed strikes contrast with U.S. President Trump’s assessment that renewed conflict is “highly unlikely” if Qatar-mediated talks on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz advance. Netanyahu, now in caretaker status after inconclusive elections, has reiterated readiness to act while coalition negotiations proceed under Gadi Eisenkot. Minor incidents near Hormuz and Iranian responses keep tensions elevated, yet U.S. pressure for de-escalation and the risk of broader escalation create offsetting pressures on trader views of near-term resumption.