The stalled implementation of the planned International Stabilization Force under the US-brokered October 2025 ceasefire agreement remains the central factor shaping trader views on foreign intervention in Gaza. Despite pledges from countries including Indonesia, Morocco, and others, plus a designated US commander, the force has not deployed amid disputes over Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawals to the Yellow Line, and formation of a new Palestinian administration via the Board of Peace. Israel has expanded control to roughly two-thirds of the territory while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed over 1,400 Palestinians since the truce, with no major escalation or qualifying foreign troop entry to date. Upcoming diplomatic pushes on Phase II implementation and potential ISF approvals could shift probabilities before year-end resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoView resolved

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