Ongoing US-Iran maritime tensions and vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied 72% probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 25.5% on fewer than 25. Recent Kpler data showed just six vessels on August 10 and daily averages near 5-13 through mid-August—roughly 90% below pre-conflict norms of 60-130—amid renewed strikes, a partial naval blockade, and stalled reopening talks with Oman. Traders are pricing persistent risk aversion, elevated war-risk insurance, and rerouting incentives that continue to limit commercial flows despite occasional diplomatic signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 10 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 10 agosto?
25-49 72%
<25 25%
50-74 1.8%
75-99 <1%
$37,235 Vol.
$37,235 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
25%
25-49
72%
50-74
2%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 72%
<25 25%
50-74 1.8%
75-99 <1%
$37,235 Vol.
$37,235 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
$14,751 Vol.
25%
25-49
$14,112 Vol.
72%
50-74
$5,513 Vol.
2%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran maritime tensions and vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied 72% probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 25.5% on fewer than 25. Recent Kpler data showed just six vessels on August 10 and daily averages near 5-13 through mid-August—roughly 90% below pre-conflict norms of 60-130—amid renewed strikes, a partial naval blockade, and stalled reopening talks with Oman. Traders are pricing persistent risk aversion, elevated war-risk insurance, and rerouting incentives that continue to limit commercial flows despite occasional diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$37,235Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran maritime tensions and vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied 72% probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 25.5% on fewer than 25. Recent Kpler data showed just six vessels on August 10 and daily averages near 5-13 through mid-August—roughly 90% below pre-conflict norms of 60-130—amid renewed strikes, a partial naval blockade, and stalled reopening talks with Oman. Traders are pricing persistent risk aversion, elevated war-risk insurance, and rerouting incentives that continue to limit commercial flows despite occasional diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$37,235Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran maritime tensions and vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied 72% probability on 25-49 weekly transits and 25.5% on fewer than 25. Recent Kpler data showed just six vessels on August 10 and daily averages near 5-13 through mid-August—roughly 90% below pre-conflict norms of 60-130—amid renewed strikes, a partial naval blockade, and stalled reopening talks with Oman. Traders are pricing persistent risk aversion, elevated war-risk insurance, and rerouting incentives that continue to limit commercial flows despite occasional diplomatic signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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