US-Iran tensions, including the February 2026 military conflict and subsequent naval blockade, combined with longstanding sanctions and domestic fiscal pressures, have driven sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial in open-market trading. By mid-2026 the rate reached roughly 1.37–1.93 million rials per dollar, reflecting capital flight, inflation from money creation, and restricted oil-export revenues. A diplomatic thaw reported in June produced modest stabilization and some rebound in parallel rates, yet core structural constraints persist. Traders monitor any further sanctions relief, oil-shipment developments, or escalation signals through August 31, as these directly influence rial supply and demand in the near term.