Israeli forces advanced beyond the Litani River in late May 2026, crossing near Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and issuing evacuation orders up to the Zahrani River roughly 10 km farther north, marking the deepest incursion into Lebanon since 2000 and expanding the de facto security zone. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the crossings and stated that troops would hold dominating terrain until Hezbollah infrastructure is dismantled. US-mediated talks in early June produced a conditional ceasefire framework requiring Hezbollah to evacuate south of the Litani and Lebanese forces to deploy there, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms, insisting on a full Israeli pullback first. Israel has described its ground operations as ongoing. UNIFIL’s mandate expires at the end of 2026, adding timeline pressure on any monitored redeployment. These military facts and stalled diplomacy form the core drivers of market assessments around withdrawal timing.