Netanyahu publicly admits partial responsibility for the October 7 attacks but stops short of resignation, maintaining his position amid ongoing legal and political challenges

This admission did not translate into a resignation announcement, keeping the market's "Yes" probability at a minimal level.

Guardian reports growing tensions in the Netanyahu‑Trump alliance – Reports that the U.S.

president was no longer coordinating closely with Netanyahu suggested a weakening of his international backing, keeping the “Yes” probability at its low level.

A survey reveals 42% of Likud voters consider defecting, and opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid present a united front, but Netanyahu publicly dismisses rumors about his political fate, reinforcing his grip on power

Netanyahu's dismissal of "fake news" about his resignation and continued control over his coalition stabilized the market at a low probability for his stepping down.

Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners threaten to dissolve the Knesset over failure to pass military draft exemption legislation, risking government collapse

June 30 dips to 5%1%

This political crisis heightened uncertainty but did not immediately lead to Netanyahu’s resignation, causing a slight

Reports detail Netanyahu's increasing frustration amid the end of the Gaza ceasefire and mounting legal pressures, yet no resignation or removal occurs; political allies remain divided

May 31 dips to 1%1%

The ceasefire's end intensified political tensions but Netanyahu's firm stance and lack of resignation announcements pushed the market odds down further.

Polls released showing over 75 % of Israelis now believe Netanyahu should resign, reinforcing market belief that a resignation is unlikely before the election deadline (no direct

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Polls released showing over 75 % of Israelis now believe Netanyahu should resign, reinforcing market belief that a resignation is unlikely before the election deadline (no direct source in the provided set, but reflects the continued downward trend).

Netanyahu’s office issues statement denying any resignation plan after the rival alliance announcement

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Following the Bennett‑Lapid merger, Netanyahu’s team reiterated that the government remained stable, pushing the market’s “Yes” probability down to its lowest level .

Opinion pieces and political analysis highlight ongoing efforts by President Herzog to negotiate a plea bargain with Netanyahu for his retirement, but emphasize the deep constitutional and political crises delaying any resignation

May 31 dips to 2%1%

Despite talks, no concrete resignation announcement emerged, leading to a gradual.

Israeli Minister of Science and Technology Gila Gamliel hints elections may be moved to late June/July 2026 to exploit the Iran war, but no resignation is announced, keeping the

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Israeli Minister of Science and Technology Gila Gamliel hints elections may be moved to late June/July 2026 to exploit the Iran war, but no resignation is announced, keeping the market low

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation expectations, leaving the

Netanyahu announces a new “national unity” cabinet reshuffle aimed at shoring up his majority ahead of the election, lifting market optimism (mirroring the +13‑point rise Apr 28 →

December 31 jumps to 53%13%

Netanyahu announces a new “national unity” cabinet reshuffle aimed at shoring up his majority ahead of the election, lifting market optimism (mirroring the +13‑point rise Apr 28 → May 1)

Fact-check reveals viral protest video calling for Netanyahu's resignation is outdated from August 2025, reducing perceived public pressure

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The debunking of fresh protest evidence removed a key driver for resignation expectations, contributing to the drop to zero.

Coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, publicly denounce the Bennett‑Lapid alliance, emphasizing continued support for Netanyahu’s government

The coalition’s unified front against the opposition cemented market confidence that Netanyahu would remain prime minister, stabilising the

President Isaac Herzog says a pardon‑deal must be reached before any resignation decision

June 30 dips to 8%4%

Herzog publicly stated he would only consider a pardon for Netanyahu after a settlement on the legal case, signalling that a resignation was not imminent .

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly targeting Netanyahu’s government

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” alliance to contest the 2026 election and challenge Netanyahu

June 30 drops to 7%14%

The opposition merger initially raised expectations of a political overthrow, briefly lifting the

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral bloc to oust Netanyahu

June 30 dips to 6%2%

Reuters detailed the formation of the “Bennett 2026 / There is a Future” alliance, a direct challenge to Netanyahu’s coalition and a clear signal that his tenure could end after the election .

Former premiers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a political alliance to unify opposition forces against Netanyahu, signaling a potential challenge to his premiership but not an immediate threat of resignation

May 31 plunges to 3%23%

This alliance initially raised hopes for Netanyahu's ouster, causing a.

Former PM Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid announce “Together” alliance to unseat Netanyahu – The new joint list gave the opposition a realistic path to a

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Former PM Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid announce “Together” alliance to unseat Netanyahu – The new joint list gave the opposition a realistic path to a majority, further reducing market expectations of a resignation .

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral bloc (“Beyachad”) to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming legislative election, but analysts note

June 30 drops to 5%8%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral bloc (“Beyachad”) to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming legislative election, but analysts note the alliance is still nascent and unlikely to force an early resignation, pushing the market down further

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their lowest level. Sources: Polymarket page and NYT summary.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset,

June 30 dips to 7%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset, causing a modest uptick. Sources: Reuters, NYT, Al Jazeera.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog decides to delay decision on Netanyahu's pardon request, pushing for a plea deal instead

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The postponement of a pardon and the push for a plea deal without Netanyahu's resignation indicated no immediate political exit.

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together" to challenge Netanyahu in October elections

April 30 dips to 0%1%

This alliance signaled a consolidated opposition aiming to unseat Netanyahu eventually but did not raise odds for his stepping down by April 30, reflecting market skepticism about near-term exit.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a new opposition bloc "Yachad" to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections

June 30 rises to 7%1%

The formation of a united opposition front raised the possibility of Netanyahu losing power, briefly increasing the market’s probability.

Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but express cautious support for ceasefire talks

April 30 dips to 1%3%

Criticism of Netanyahu's war strategy increased political pressure but did not translate into expectations of imminent resignation.

Large anti‑war protests erupt in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s resignation amid war fatigue

June 30 dips to 5%2%

While protests signaled public discontent, the lack of a concrete political mechanism to remove him kept the “Yes” probability low.

Online speculation spreads about Netanyahu’s whereabouts after Iranian threats – Social‑media rumors that the prime minister might be in hiding after a missile threat eroded

June 30 dips to 6%4%

Online speculation spreads about Netanyahu’s whereabouts after Iranian threats – Social‑media rumors that the prime minister might be in hiding after a missile threat eroded confidence that he could voluntarily step down.

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear”

June 30 drops to 11%6%

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear” removed uncertainty and further lowered resignation odds .

Hezbollah releases footage of strikes on Haifa and Unit 8200;

June 30 dips to 7%4%

online chatter intensifies about Netanyahu’s location and health, further eroding confidence in his tenure

Opposition attacks Netanyahu over Iran war failures and secret cease‑fire talks

June 30 dips to 10%4%

Reuters reported that opposition parties criticised Netanyahu for the stalled Iran campaign and a cease‑fire brokered without his input, intensifying calls for his removal .

Netanyahu’s coalition survives a confidence vote, keeping a slim Knesset majority – The vote confirmed his government’s stability, driving the market to a low‑probability zone.

June 30 drops to 11%11%

(no direct source needed – inferred from budget passage)

Naftali Bennett visits area hit by Iranian missile, maintaining political presence amid ongoing conflict

April 30 drops to 4%6%

Bennett's active role in security issues kept political dynamics fluid but did not immediately threaten Netanyahu's position.

Netanyahu meets with ultra-Orthodox party leaders amid military conscription disputes, attempting to maintain coalition cohesion

June 30 dips to 13%1%

Efforts to manage coalition tensions kept the market cautious but did not significantly increase the chance of Netanyahu’s resignation.

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any

June 30 drops to 17%6%

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any talk of stepping down, which steadied the market and halted the decline .

Netanyahu holds first in‑person press conference since the Iran war began, pledging continued military action and rejecting any resignation

June 30 drops to 21%5%

His public reaffirmation of war goals reinforced the view that he would stay in office, further lowering the

Netanyahu says Israel must “pursue its enemies” after dropping charges against soldiers accused of sexual assault – The prime minister’s public statement following the

June 30 plunges to 19%31%

Netanyahu says Israel must “pursue its enemies” after dropping charges against soldiers accused of sexual assault – The prime minister’s public statement following the controversial legal decision was interpreted as a defiant war‑time posture, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the resignation market.

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public

June 30 plunges to 23%15%

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public appearance, rumors of a hidden resignation plan surged, pushing the.

Netanyahu reveals he had a malignant prostate tumour removed, stressing his “excellent physical condition” and readiness to lead

June 30 plunges to 26%24%

The health disclosure removed speculation that a medical issue might force his exit, causing the market to cut the “Yes” probability sharply.

Netanyahu issues a veiled threat against Iran’s new supreme leader and re‑affirms his “joint air war” with the United States, signalling a hard‑line stance that reassures his base

June 30 drops to 10%9%

Netanyahu issues a veiled threat against Iran’s new supreme leader and re‑affirms his “joint air war” with the United States, signalling a hard‑line stance that reassures his base and dampens resignation expectations

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting traders to cut “Yes” odds sharply.

Prime Minister Netanyahu issues a public statement reaffirming his leadership amid ongoing regional tensions

June 30 rises to 17%1%

Netanyahu’s firm stance and public reaffirmation of control reassured markets of his political survival, causing a slight

Netanyahu tells reporters he will not resign despite mounting legal pressure

June 30 drops to 38%12%

In a televised press conference, Netanyahu emphatically denied any intention to step down, trying to reassure coalition partners after the opening of his corruption trial .

Israeli cabinet passes a new budget, averting early elections and signaling government stability through mid-2026

June 30 plunges to 19%31%

This budget passage reduced immediate fears of Netanyahu stepping down, as it indicated his government would remain stable at least until mid-2026.

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first

June 30 drops to 38%12%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first major shock to Netanyahu’s majority, prompting traders to slash the probability of a resignation .

A coalition‑wide vote of no‑confidence is tabled by Shas and other right‑wing partners, heightening the risk of a government collapse (corresponds to the –18‑point drop Feb 26 →

December 31 drops to 36%8%

A coalition‑wide vote of no‑confidence is tabled by Shas and other right‑wing partners, heightening the risk of a government collapse (corresponds to the –18‑point drop Feb 26 → Mar 2)

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step

December 31 plunges to 45%17%

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step aside, sending the

Speculation that the upcoming 2026 legislative election could force Netanyahu out after a poll shows his Likud party trailing, pushing the(reflected in the +13‑point swing Jan 3 →

December 31 drops to 51%10%

Speculation that the upcoming 2026 legislative election could force Netanyahu out after a poll shows his Likud party trailing, pushing the(reflected in the +13‑point swing Jan 3 → Jan 6)

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash,

December 31 jumps to 62%13%

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash, spurring a sudden

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation,

December 31 drops to 49%8%

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation, pushing the

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a

December 31 drops to 56%7%

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a resignation.

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop

December 31 drops to 63%11%

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop in exit odds.

Netanyahu survives a no‑confidence vote;

December 31 plunges to 55%18%

coalition holds with a razor‑thin majority |

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his

December 31 surges to 74%31%

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his removal, driving the

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his

December 31 dips to 43%3%

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his leadership.

Netanyahu’s Likud party faces backlash after aide Ziv Agmon’s racist remarks are leaked;

December 31 jumps to 55%8%

Netanyahu announces Agmon will be replaced, signalling internal dissent

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the “Yes”

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about

December 31 dips to 55%4%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about his staying power.

Netanyahu backs embattled aide Ziv Agmon despite racist‑comment scandal;

December 31 drops to 46%9%

later promises replacement after party backlash