Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$6,651,752 Vol.
30 giu 2026
June 30
<1%
July 31
3%
August 31
8%
September 30
13%
December 31
21%
$6,651,752 Vol.
June 30
$3,315,364 Vol.
<1%
July 31
$1,351,447 Vol.
3%
August 31
$298,543 Vol.
8%
September 30
$22,162 Vol.
13%
December 31
$48,799 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$6,651,752Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$6,651,752Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti