Despite Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's May 15 call for full West Bank annexation during Jerusalem Day events—citing approvals for 60,000 new housing units and erasure of Oslo Area divisions—traders assign an 88% implied probability to no formal annexation before 2027, reflecting the absence of concrete Knesset legislation or executive orders amid sustained international opposition, including from the US and EU. Recent de facto measures, such as the Knesset's first-reading approval of a bill placing West Bank heritage sites under direct Israeli control three days ago and accelerated settlement expansions like 34 new outposts in April, advance territorial control without crossing into outright sovereignty claims. Coalition pressures from far-right partners persist, but Prime Minister Netanyahu's prioritization of Gaza operations and diplomatic relations with Arab states, alongside potential US policy constraints, underpin trader consensus on significant legal and geopolitical barriers to formal steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIsraele annetterà il territorio della Cisgiordania prima del 2027?
Israele annetterà il territorio della Cisgiordania prima del 2027?
Sì
$67,714 Vol.
$67,714 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$67,714 Vol.
$67,714 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's May 15 call for full West Bank annexation during Jerusalem Day events—citing approvals for 60,000 new housing units and erasure of Oslo Area divisions—traders assign an 88% implied probability to no formal annexation before 2027, reflecting the absence of concrete Knesset legislation or executive orders amid sustained international opposition, including from the US and EU. Recent de facto measures, such as the Knesset's first-reading approval of a bill placing West Bank heritage sites under direct Israeli control three days ago and accelerated settlement expansions like 34 new outposts in April, advance territorial control without crossing into outright sovereignty claims. Coalition pressures from far-right partners persist, but Prime Minister Netanyahu's prioritization of Gaza operations and diplomatic relations with Arab states, alongside potential US policy constraints, underpin trader consensus on significant legal and geopolitical barriers to formal steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$67,714Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's May 15 call for full West Bank annexation during Jerusalem Day events—citing approvals for 60,000 new housing units and erasure of Oslo Area divisions—traders assign an 88% implied probability to no formal annexation before 2027, reflecting the absence of concrete Knesset legislation or executive orders amid sustained international opposition, including from the US and EU. Recent de facto measures, such as the Knesset's first-reading approval of a bill placing West Bank heritage sites under direct Israeli control three days ago and accelerated settlement expansions like 34 new outposts in April, advance territorial control without crossing into outright sovereignty claims. Coalition pressures from far-right partners persist, but Prime Minister Netanyahu's prioritization of Gaza operations and diplomatic relations with Arab states, alongside potential US policy constraints, underpin trader consensus on significant legal and geopolitical barriers to formal steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$67,714Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's May 15 call for full West Bank annexation during Jerusalem Day events—citing approvals for 60,000 new housing units and erasure of Oslo Area divisions—traders assign an 88% implied probability to no formal annexation before 2027, reflecting the absence of concrete Knesset legislation or executive orders amid sustained international opposition, including from the US and EU. Recent de facto measures, such as the Knesset's first-reading approval of a bill placing West Bank heritage sites under direct Israeli control three days ago and accelerated settlement expansions like 34 new outposts in April, advance territorial control without crossing into outright sovereignty claims. Coalition pressures from far-right partners persist, but Prime Minister Netanyahu's prioritization of Gaza operations and diplomatic relations with Arab states, alongside potential US policy constraints, underpin trader consensus on significant legal and geopolitical barriers to formal steps.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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