The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders underpins the 84.5% implied probability that it will not fall by June 2027. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was installed rapidly, security forces maintained cohesion, and major protests from late 2025 through early 2026 were suppressed without triggering systemic collapse. Recent diplomatic proposals involving nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz access, alongside economic pressures and factional strains, have not produced verifiable fractures capable of toppling the system in the near term. Traders price continuity based on this pattern of adaptation under sustained external and domestic stress, though scheduled events like ongoing U.S. policy decisions could still influence outcomes.