Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the February 2026 strikes and subsequent July resumption over Strait of Hormuz shipping have driven trader focus on escalation risks without a formal congressional war declaration. Recent developments include U.S. pauses in strikes for diplomacy as of late July, Iranian statements rejecting immediate talks while demanding sanctions relief and compensation, and progress reported in early August on an Iran-Oman arrangement to reopen the strait with U.S. blockade adjustments. Key variables include whether bilateral or multilateral negotiations yield verifiable de-escalation within any market timeframe, potential IRGC actions or proxy involvement, and congressional authorization thresholds that have historically constrained formal declarations despite sustained operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti dichiareranno ufficialmente guerra all'Iran entro...?
Gli Stati Uniti dichiareranno ufficialmente guerra all'Iran entro...?
$7,763,406 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
3%
$7,763,406 Vol.
31 dicembre
$790,771 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the February 2026 strikes and subsequent July resumption over Strait of Hormuz shipping have driven trader focus on escalation risks without a formal congressional war declaration. Recent developments include U.S. pauses in strikes for diplomacy as of late July, Iranian statements rejecting immediate talks while demanding sanctions relief and compensation, and progress reported in early August on an Iran-Oman arrangement to reopen the strait with U.S. blockade adjustments. Key variables include whether bilateral or multilateral negotiations yield verifiable de-escalation within any market timeframe, potential IRGC actions or proxy involvement, and congressional authorization thresholds that have historically constrained formal declarations despite sustained operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,763,406Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the February 2026 strikes and subsequent July resumption over Strait of Hormuz shipping have driven trader focus on escalation risks without a formal congressional war declaration. Recent developments include U.S. pauses in strikes for diplomacy as of late July, Iranian statements rejecting immediate talks while demanding sanctions relief and compensation, and progress reported in early August on an Iran-Oman arrangement to reopen the strait with U.S. blockade adjustments. Key variables include whether bilateral or multilateral negotiations yield verifiable de-escalation within any market timeframe, potential IRGC actions or proxy involvement, and congressional authorization thresholds that have historically constrained formal declarations despite sustained operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,763,406Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the February 2026 strikes and subsequent July resumption over Strait of Hormuz shipping have driven trader focus on escalation risks without a formal congressional war declaration. Recent developments include U.S. pauses in strikes for diplomacy as of late July, Iranian statements rejecting immediate talks while demanding sanctions relief and compensation, and progress reported in early August on an Iran-Oman arrangement to reopen the strait with U.S. blockade adjustments. Key variables include whether bilateral or multilateral negotiations yield verifiable de-escalation within any market timeframe, potential IRGC actions or proxy involvement, and congressional authorization thresholds that have historically constrained formal declarations despite sustained operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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