Israel's military operations in 2026 have centered on strikes against Iran beginning in late February, alongside sustained actions targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon and proxy positions in Syria, Yemen, and Gaza. These fronts account for the narrow set of countries reflected in current trader pricing, with the heavy weighting toward four total outcomes driven by the absence of escalation to additional sovereign states since the initial Iran campaign and related proxy exchanges. Recent developments, including continued low-intensity strikes in Gaza and a major West Bank operation in October that concluded without new international targets, have reinforced expectations of contained scope through year-end. Diplomatic signals around potential further Iran-related activity have not shifted probabilities toward broader involvement, as no verifiable strikes have extended to other nations in the past month.