How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8 35.8%
9 34.4%
10 14.5%
11 6.9%
$1,534,346 Vol.
$1,534,346 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8
$285,383 Vol.
36%
9
$28,633 Vol.
34%
10
$23,229 Vol.
14%
11
$22,879 Vol.
7%
12
$41,130 Vol.
3%
13
$96,059 Vol.
2%
14
$146,479 Vol.
1%
15+
$124,400 Vol.
1%
8 35.8%
9 34.4%
10 14.5%
11 6.9%
$1,534,346 Vol.
$1,534,346 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8
$285,383 Vol.
36%
9
$28,633 Vol.
34%
10
$23,229 Vol.
14%
11
$22,879 Vol.
7%
12
$41,130 Vol.
3%
13
$96,059 Vol.
2%
14
$146,479 Vol.
1%
15+
$124,400 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 36%7%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This confirmed the continuation of US strikes limited to Iranian soil, reinforcing market confidence in a low number of countries targeted.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites after drone downing, Iran fires missiles at US troops in Kuwait
8 rises to 1%1%
In early June, the US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites following the downing of an American drone, while Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting US forces in Kuwait. Despite missile fire in Kuwait, US strikes were confined to Iranian territory, maintaining the market's focus on Iran alone.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch extensive strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a significant escalation in military action confined to Iranian territory. This event set the baseline expectation that US strikes would be focused on Iran, influencing market prices downward for higher country counts.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 36%7%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This confirmed the continuation of US strikes limited to Iranian soil, reinforcing market confidence in a low number of countries targeted.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites after drone downing, Iran fires missiles at US troops in Kuwait
8 rises to 1%1%
In early June, the US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites following the downing of an American drone, while Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting US forces in Kuwait. Despite missile fire in Kuwait, US strikes were confined to Iranian territory, maintaining the market's focus on Iran alone.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch extensive strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a significant escalation in military action confined to Iranian territory. This event set the baseline expectation that US strikes would be focused on Iran, influencing market prices downward for higher country counts.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
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"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 16 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "8" a 36%, seguito da "9" a 34%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 36¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" ha generato $1.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 13, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?", esplora i 16 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" è "8" a 36%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "9" a 34%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $1.5 million scambiati su "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 36¢ per "8" nel mercato "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 36% che "8" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 36¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 64¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Dec 30, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" ha una comunità attiva di 34 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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