Traders assign an 89.1% probability to “No” because no US ally has announced or demonstrated credible steps toward acquiring nuclear weapons by 2027. Extended US security commitments, including nuclear umbrellas for NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, continue to reduce incentives for independent arsenals. International treaties such as the NPT, reinforced by IAEA safeguards and export controls on enrichment technology, impose high technical and diplomatic barriers that have not been breached by any ally in recent years. No major policy shifts, legislative changes, or official statements in the past thirty days have altered this baseline, leaving the market consensus anchored in longstanding non-proliferation norms and alliance structures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign an 89.1% probability to “No” because no US ally has announced or demonstrated credible steps toward acquiring nuclear weapons by 2027. Extended US security commitments, including nuclear umbrellas for NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, continue to reduce incentives for independent arsenals. International treaties such as the NPT, reinforced by IAEA safeguards and export controls on enrichment technology, impose high technical and diplomatic barriers that have not been breached by any ally in recent years. No major policy shifts, legislative changes, or official statements in the past thirty days have altered this baseline, leaving the market consensus anchored in longstanding non-proliferation norms and alliance structures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,760Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign an 89.1% probability to “No” because no US ally has announced or demonstrated credible steps toward acquiring nuclear weapons by 2027. Extended US security commitments, including nuclear umbrellas for NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, continue to reduce incentives for independent arsenals. International treaties such as the NPT, reinforced by IAEA safeguards and export controls on enrichment technology, impose high technical and diplomatic barriers that have not been breached by any ally in recent years. No major policy shifts, legislative changes, or official statements in the past thirty days have altered this baseline, leaving the market consensus anchored in longstanding non-proliferation norms and alliance structures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$6,760Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89.1% probability to “No” because no US ally has announced or demonstrated credible steps toward acquiring nuclear weapons by 2027. Extended US security commitments, including nuclear umbrellas for NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, continue to reduce incentives for independent arsenals. International treaties such as the NPT, reinforced by IAEA safeguards and export controls on enrichment technology, impose high technical and diplomatic barriers that have not been breached by any ally in recent years. No major policy shifts, legislative changes, or official statements in the past thirty days have altered this baseline, leaving the market consensus anchored in longstanding non-proliferation norms and alliance structures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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