Russia's senior officials, including the defense minister and foreign ministry, have repeatedly affirmed adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in recent weeks, stating no intent to resume nuclear detonations and distinguishing missile or torpedo delivery-system trials from actual nuclear explosions. Recent activities include successful launches of Yars and Bulava intercontinental missiles during strategic exercises, a failed Poseidon torpedo preparation in the Arctic, and ongoing Sarmat program setbacks, none of which involved nuclear chain reactions. These developments, alongside sanctions constraining high-tech components and the closing Arctic testing window, underpin trader consensus on low near-term probability. Scheduled diplomatic or U.S. policy shifts on testing could still influence the timeline through year-end.