U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$768,750 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
4%
$768,750 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$50,749 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,750Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,750Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti