Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$665,485 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
2%
30 settembre 2026
6%
31 dicembre 2026
9%
$665,485 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$39,466 Vol.
2%
30 settembre 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$665,485Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$665,485Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti