Trader consensus prices an 81% chance Ukraine will not agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and lack of concessions in ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 faced mutual violation accusations, while President Putin's May 9 statement that the conflict is "coming to an end" omitted NATO specifics amid stalled negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April no alliance consensus for Ukraine's near-term entry, with opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. Ukraine prioritizes EU accession by 2027, underscoring competitive odds absent a breakthrough deal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$98,811 Vol.
$98,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$98,811 Vol.
$98,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices an 81% chance Ukraine will not agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and lack of concessions in ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 faced mutual violation accusations, while President Putin's May 9 statement that the conflict is "coming to an end" omitted NATO specifics amid stalled negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April no alliance consensus for Ukraine's near-term entry, with opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. Ukraine prioritizes EU accession by 2027, underscoring competitive odds absent a breakthrough deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$98,811Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices an 81% chance Ukraine will not agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and lack of concessions in ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 faced mutual violation accusations, while President Putin's May 9 statement that the conflict is "coming to an end" omitted NATO specifics amid stalled negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April no alliance consensus for Ukraine's near-term entry, with opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. Ukraine prioritizes EU accession by 2027, underscoring competitive odds absent a breakthrough deal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$98,811Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 81% chance Ukraine will not agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment to NATO accession and lack of concessions in ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 faced mutual violation accusations, while President Putin's May 9 statement that the conflict is "coming to an end" omitted NATO specifics amid stalled negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April no alliance consensus for Ukraine's near-term entry, with opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. Ukraine prioritizes EU accession by 2027, underscoring competitive odds absent a breakthrough deal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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