Vladimir Putin's constitutional authority, reinforced by 2020 term-limit amendments that reset eligibility for two additional six-year terms after his 2024 reelection, anchors trader consensus that he will remain president through June 30. His recent public role, including the May 9 Victory Day address reaffirming military objectives while signaling possible movement on the Ukraine conflict amid a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, has underscored ongoing control without signs of elite fractures or institutional pressure. No verified health developments, succession signals, or challenges from security structures have surfaced in the past 30 days to indicate disruption. Even with this high implied probability for continuity, low-probability events such as a sudden incapacitating medical issue or rapid battlefield reversal triggering internal instability could still alter the outcome before the resolution date.