Persistent moderation in Russian inflation, which eased to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026 from 5.6% in April—the lowest level since August 2023—underpins the 79.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Following the April reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5%, the central bank’s communications have emphasized assessing further easing based on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations, with its baseline 2026 average rate forecast of 14.0–14.5% signaling room for additional policy loosening. Elevated pro-inflationary risks tied to fiscal policy and external conditions continue to favor measured 25–50 basis point steps rather than aggressive moves, aligning with the low 2.7% odds of a hike. The June 19 decision and upcoming inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or temper this trader consensus.