US sanctions under the Trump administration, including the oil blockade and designations targeting state entities like CUPET and GAESA, have blocked government-to-government economic agreements while channeling record exports—primarily fuel—to Cuba’s private sector, which reached $231 million from January to August 2026. Havana responded with June reforms expanding private enterprise and foreign investment, and earlier back-channel talks explored energy access in exchange for privatization steps, yet no publicly announced mutual deal on tariffs, sanctions relief, or the embargo has materialized. Recent US interceptions of biodiesel shipments and continued secondary sanctions reinforce the emphasis on bypassing the Cuban government, sustaining trader consensus around low probabilities for a formal accord by late 2026.