Trump’s recent phone conversations with Putin and Zelenskyy around the June 2026 G7 summit have not produced announced dates or venues for a bilateral meeting, consistent with Kremlin statements on June 9 that no call or envoy visit is scheduled. Ongoing envoy-level contacts on Ukraine remain stalled without escalation to a leader summit, while White House comments have ruled out an immediate in-person encounter. With only days left before the June 30 cutoff, the absence of any confirmed diplomatic timeline or breakthrough keeps the probability of no meeting overwhelmingly high among traders. A rapid Ukraine-related advance or last-minute announcement could still shift odds before the window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRussian officials accuse US of abandoning 'spirit of Anchorage'
No meeting by June 30 rises to 100%3%
Senior Russian officials claimed the US walked away from commitments allegedly made during the August 2025 Anchorage meeting, reflecting the failure to achieve peace and diminishing prospects for further Trump-Putin meetings within the market timeframe.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in the US
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 99%5%
At the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged Donald Trump to facilitate talks between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin in the United States. Trump claimed both leaders were open to a meeting, but no such meeting occurred by June 30, 2026, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting within the timeframe.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
At the G7 summit, European leaders urged Trump to host talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the US, but no direct Trump-Putin meeting was reported, reinforcing market belief that no meeting occurred by June 30.
Trump and Zelenskyy discuss possibility of meeting with Putin in the US around G7
No meeting by June 30 rises to 97%4%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that he and Trump discussed holding a meeting with Putin in the United States around the G7 summit, but Putin was unwilling. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur by June 30, 2026.
Trump and Putin hold friendly phone call discussing Ukraine and Iran peace efforts
No meeting by June 30 rises to 98%1%
On June 14, 2026, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a friendly and frank phone call discussing ongoing efforts to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran. This call reinforced expectations of continued dialogue but did not indicate a new in-person meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting by June 30, 2026.
Trump reportedly tells Putin he is prepared to help end war in Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 97%5%
A phone call between Trump and Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war, but no meeting was scheduled, reinforcing market expectations that no in-person meeting would occur by June 30.
Trump and Putin hold 55-minute phone call discussing Ukraine ceasefire
No meeting by June 30 rises to 100%1%
Trump and Putin spoke by phone for 55 minutes discussing a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, showing continued communication but no in-person meeting, supporting the market's final resolution to 'No meeting by June 30'.
Trump tells Putin he is prepared to help end war in Ukraine during phone call
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%1%
In a friendly and frank phone call, Trump informed Putin that the US was nearing a peace deal with Iran and expressed readiness to help end the war in Ukraine. This call reinforced the lack of a new in-person meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting by June 30.
Trump and Putin hold phone call discussing Ukraine war and peace efforts
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 98%8%
Trump and Putin spoke by phone, with Putin wishing Trump a happy 80th birthday and both leaders discussing ways to end the Ukraine conflict. Despite ongoing dialogue, no in-person meeting was scheduled, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur by June 30, 2026.
Trump and Putin talk on Trump’s 80th birthday
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%3%
The Guardian reported a June‑14 call between Trump and Putin during which Putin wished Trump a happy 80th birthday, reinforcing the existence of a direct communication line and driving the “No meeting by June 30” price to its final 99 % level.
Trump and Putin hold informal phone call amid stalled peace talks
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%2%
Trump and Putin spoke for 55 minutes, with Putin wishing Trump a happy 80th birthday. Despite the call, peace negotiations remained stalled, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before June 30, 2026.
Trump holds phone call with Putin discussing Ukraine peace and Iran deal
No meeting by June 30 rises to 97%3%
On his 80th birthday, Trump held a 55-minute phone call with Putin, emphasizing the importance of ending the Ukraine conflict and readiness to help, while also discussing a near peace deal with Iran. This renewed hopes for diplomatic progress but did not confirm a new meeting, increasing market confidence in no meeting by June 30.
Putin congratulates Trump on 80th birthday, signaling ongoing dialogue
No meeting by June 30 rises to 100%1%
Putin publicly congratulated Trump on his 80th birthday, reflecting continued cordial relations and communication but no announced plans for a meeting, supporting the market's final resolution of no meeting by June 30.
No confirmed meeting between Trump and Putin by June 30, 2026
No meeting by June 30 rises to 98%4%
Despite ongoing diplomatic communications and proposals, no in-person meeting with direct interaction between Trump and Putin occurred by the market's resolution date, leading to near certainty of the "No meeting by June 30" outcome.
Kremlin says no plans for Putin-Trump call or meeting soon
No meeting by June 30 rises to 97%2%
On June 9, 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated there were no plans for a telephone call or meeting between Trump and Putin, confirming the market's strong expectation that no meeting would occur by June 30.
Trump says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting would be 'great' after Ukraine president's letter
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%1%
On June 5, 2026, Trump expressed support for a potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, taking credit for encouraging talks. However, no direct Trump-Putin meeting was announced, sustaining market belief in no meeting by June 30.
Trump supports possible meeting between Zelensky and Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%1%
Trump publicly expressed support for direct talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin, calling it a positive step toward conflict resolution. However, this statement did not indicate a meeting between Trump and Putin, reinforcing the market's view that no such meeting would occur by June 30.
Russian envoy says Trump‑Putin meeting likely to happen later
Other rises to 3%2%
A senior Russian foreign‑policy adviser reiterated that a Trump‑Putin meeting was still being discussed for a later date, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small uptick in the "Other" price before a final slide to "No meeting".
Trump doubts Putin will attend Miami G‑20
No meeting by June 30 rises to 94%2%
A minor uptick in “No meeting” as analysts noted Trump’s public doubts about Putin accepting a G‑20 invitation, pushing the market toward the no‑meeting endpoint.
Putin visits China shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%4%
Putin’s visit to Beijing shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping highlighted the strong Russia-China ties and contrasted with the lack of further Trump-Putin meetings, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Putin and Xi Jinping hold joint press statement in Beijing
No meeting by June 30 rises to 83%4%
Putin and Xi Jinping delivered a joint press statement and signed cooperation documents in Beijing, emphasizing strategic partnership. The event contrasted with Trump’s separate visit and did not include a Trump-Putin meeting, sustaining market consensus of no meeting by June 30.
Putin visits Beijing days after Trump, meets Xi Jinping
China dips to 0%2%
Vladimir Putin arrived in China shortly after Trump’s visit, receiving a similar ceremonial welcome and meeting Xi Jinping, highlighting Beijing’s role as a diplomatic pivot but no Trump-Putin meeting.
Putin visits Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping following Trump’s visit
On May 20, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping shortly after President Trump's visit. The meeting highlighted the close Russia-China relationship and contrasted with the more formal Trump visit, underscoring Putin's diplomatic focus outside of direct talks with Trump during this period.
Trump and Putin welcomed separately in Beijing
No meeting by June 30 surges to 88%18%
The Guardian described simultaneous high‑profile welcomes for Trump and Putin in Beijing, highlighting that the two leaders were not meeting each other, which bolstered confidence in a “No meeting” outcome.
Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump-Xi summit
Putin's visit to Beijing for a meeting with Xi Jinping shortly after Trump's summit with Xi highlighted the strong China-Russia ties and contrasted with the lack of a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations against a meeting in Russia or other locations.
Putin visits China days after Trump’s visit, highlighting diplomatic contrasts
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China shortly after Donald Trump's visit, receiving a warm welcome and signing cooperation agreements with Xi Jinping. This visit underscored the close Russia-China ties and contrasted with Trump's visit, but did not involve a meeting between Trump and Putin, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Putin meets Xi in Beijing days after Trump’s China summit
Other rises to 7%3%
Putin’s visit to Beijing coincided with Trump’s recent trip to China, prompting speculation that a three‑way summit could be arranged. Market prices for “Other” and “Gulf country” rose modestly as traders priced a possible multilateral venue.
Putin visits China shortly after Trump’s Beijing summit
China dips to 0%2%
Putin’s visit to China shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping highlighted the absence of a Trump-Putin meeting and underscored the stronger Russia-China ties, reducing market speculation of a Trump-Putin meeting in China or elsewhere.
Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump-Xi summit
No meeting by June 30 rises to 94%3%
Putin's meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump's summit with Xi highlighted the close Russia-China ties and contrasted with the lack of Trump-Putin meetings, reinforcing market expectations of no Trump-Putin meeting.
Putin meets Xi in Beijing a week after Trump’s China visit
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 99%7%
Putin visited Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping a week after Trump’s own visit to China. Reports highlighted no direct Trump‑Putin meeting, pushing the market back toward "No meeting" and reducing the "Other" odds.
Putin visits China days after Trump, no meeting reported
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 99%8%
In May 2026, Vladimir Putin visited China shortly after Donald Trump, but no meeting between the two was reported during this period. This absence of a meeting contributed to the market's near certainty that no further meetings would occur by June 30, 2026.
Putin and Xi Jinping hold summit in Beijing after Trump’s visit
Putin’s visit to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping occurred just days after Trump’s own meeting with Xi, reinforcing China’s role as a diplomatic hub. Despite the proximity of these visits, no direct meeting between Trump and Putin took place, which influenced the market to further discount the likelihood of their meeting.
Putin visits Beijing days after Trump, meets Chinese President Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing shortly after Trump's visit in May 2026 and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The separate visits underscored China's role as a diplomatic pivot but did not include a meeting between Trump and Putin, further supporting market consensus that no meeting would occur by June 30, 2026.
Putin Visits Xi Jinping in China Days After Trump Summit
No meeting by June 30 dips to 63%4%
Putin's visit to China shortly after Trump's summit with Xi Jinping raised speculation about China as a diplomatic hub but did not indicate a Trump-Putin meeting, reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or China.
Putin heads to Beijing days after Trump’s China visit
No meeting by June 30 surges to 74%16%
CNBC reported that Putin travelled to Beijing a few days after Trump’s state visit, signalling no near‑term joint meeting with Trump and strengthening the “No meeting” consensus.
Putin visits Beijing for summit with Xi Jinping days after Trump
No meeting by June 30 rises to 88%3%
On May 19-20, 2026, Putin visited Beijing shortly after Trump's visit, meeting Xi Jinping. The visits were back-to-back but no direct meeting between Trump and Putin took place, which the market interpreted as a sign no meeting would occur soon.
Trump meets Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi amid regional tensions
On May 15, 2026, President Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Washington, D.C., to strengthen U.S.-Japan relations and discuss regional security issues including tensions related to Iran and China. This meeting underscored Trump's diplomatic engagements in Asia but did not involve Putin, reflecting the absence of a Trump-Putin meeting during this period.
Trump and Putin visit Beijing separately, no meeting between them
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%4%
In May 2026, both Trump and Putin visited Beijing days apart but did not meet each other. This confirmed no new meeting between the two leaders occurred in the analysis window beyond the Alaska summit, reinforcing market expectations that no further meeting would take place by June 30, 2026.
Trump visits Beijing for summit with Xi Jinping
China plunges to 2%47%
Donald Trump visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, receiving a lavish welcome but achieving few concrete breakthroughs, signaling separate diplomatic tracks from Putin.
Trump visits China for summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 83%4%
Donald Trump held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, focusing on trade and cooperation. This visit was separate from Putin’s and did not include a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Trump visits Beijing for summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 99%2%
President Donald Trump visited Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May 2026. This visit was part of a broader diplomatic engagement but did not include a meeting with Putin, signaling a shift in focus away from a Trump-Putin meeting and reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30, 2026.
Kremlin confirms Putin’s open invitation for Trump to visit Moscow
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Russia remains open, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Kremlin confirms Putin's open invitation for Trump to visit Moscow
The Kremlin reiterated that Putin would welcome Trump to Moscow, keeping the possibility of a meeting in Russia open, though no meeting took place by June 30, 2026.
Kremlin says Putin still invites Trump to Moscow
Russia rises to 4%2%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remained open, momentarily reviving hopes for a meeting on Russian soil and nudging the “Russia” odds upward.
Kremlin says invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
Russia dips to 1%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin's invitation for Trump to visit Russia remains open, though no dates or concrete plans have been set, keeping the probability of a meeting in Russia very low.
Kremlin confirms invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
The Kremlin spokesman stated that Putin would gladly welcome Trump to Moscow, keeping the possibility of a meeting in Russia alive but without confirmation of a scheduled meeting.
Kremlin confirms invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 92%11%
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin's invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open, signaling ongoing diplomatic openness but no confirmed meeting, supporting market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Kremlin says Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remained open, keeping the prospect of a US‑Russia meeting alive and nudging the "Other" and "Russia" prices marginally upward.
Trump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
US jobs report shows strong hiring despite Iran war
No meeting by June 30 surges to 89%19%
Robust US employment data improved domestic economic confidence in Trump’s leadership, indirectly supporting the “No meeting” outlook as market participants focused on domestic issues.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine-Russia War
No meeting by June 30 rises to 82%2%
President Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, agreed upon by Putin and Zelensky, signaling diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, impacting market expectations toward no meeting.
Trump discusses possible Ukraine ceasefire with Putin in phone call
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 92%11%
Trump stated he discussed a possible ceasefire in Ukraine with Putin during a phone call, indicating ongoing communication but no in-person meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Trump says he discussed Ukraine ceasefire with Putin
Other rises to 4%2%
Trump announced a phone call discussing a Ukraine cease‑fire, raising speculation of a future face‑to‑face meeting and causing a modest rise in the “Other” price.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine and Iran
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 69%7%
Putin and Trump engaged in a lengthy phone call discussing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, including a proposed temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. This phone interaction underscored ongoing communication but did not translate into an in-person meeting, maintaining market skepticism about a direct encounter.
Trump and Putin discuss possible temporary ceasefire in Ukraine in phone call
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 99%7%
On April 29, 2026, President Trump and President Putin held a lengthy phone call discussing a possible temporary ceasefire in the ongoing Ukraine war, marking their first call that year. Trump suggested a brief ceasefire around May 9, a Russian holiday, but no lasting agreement was reached. This call reflected ongoing diplomatic engagement but no in-person meeting during the market's timeframe.
Trump‑Putin phone call after Davos Board of Peace event
Russia dips to 28%4%
Following the Board of Peace signing, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone, reviving speculation of a meeting but without concrete plans, causing a modest rise in the Russia outcome.
U.S. to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, Trump doubts attendance
The United States announced it would invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, hosted by the U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump expressed doubt that Putin would attend. This event kept speculation about a U.S. meeting location alive but did not result in a Trump-Putin meeting.
White House to invite Putin to Miami G20; Trump doubts his attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 81%11%
The White House announced it would invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, but Trump expressed doubts he would attend, causing the market to revert to "No meeting" as the likelihood of a direct encounter faded.
White House invites Putin to Miami G20 summit
United States surges to 25%15%
The White House confirmed an invitation to Putin for the G20 summit in Miami (December 2025). Although Trump expressed doubt about acceptance, the invitation raised the chance of a meeting on U.S. soil, lifting the “United States” odds.
White House plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%10%
The Trump administration confirmed plans to invite Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, though Trump expressed skepticism that Putin would attend, keeping the likelihood of a meeting low.
Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 88%9%
Trump announced intentions to invite Putin to the December 2026 G20 summit in Miami, indicating ongoing diplomatic outreach but no confirmed meeting within the market timeframe, reinforcing 'No meeting' expectations.
Trump to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, doubts Putin will attend
United States dips to 0%1%
The U.S. announced an invitation to Putin for the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, but Trump expressed doubts about Putin's attendance, causing minor speculation but no confirmed meeting.
US to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, Trump doubts attendance
The US announced it would invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, but Trump expressed doubt Putin would attend, reflecting low likelihood of a meeting on US soil during the market timeframe.
Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December
Trump announced intentions to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation of a possible meeting there, but Putin's attendance remained uncertain, limiting market impact on meeting location probabilities.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the December 2026 G20 summit in Miami, signaling potential for a future meeting, but Putin's attendance remained uncertain, keeping market expectations low for a meeting in the United States.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December
Reports emerged that Trump planned to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation about a possible meeting at this event. However, doubts about Putin's attendance limited market impact, with no confirmed meeting.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, doubts about attendance
No meeting by June 30 rises to 91%3%
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the December 2026 G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation about a possible meeting. However, Trump expressed doubts Putin would attend, and no meeting occurred during the summit timeframe.
US plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, Trump doubts attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 99%8%
The United States announced plans to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026. President Trump expressed skepticism about Putin's attendance. This event raised speculation about a possible meeting, but no in-person encounter occurred during the market timeframe, reinforcing the market's move toward "No meeting by June 30."
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
Belarusian President Lukashenko signals readiness to meet Trump after 'big deal' prepared
Belarus dips to 0%2%
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated he would be ready to meet U.S. President Donald Trump once a significant deal between the two countries is prepared. This raised some market interest in Belarus as a potential meeting location, though no meeting occurred within the timeframe.
Trump announces three‑day ceasefire in Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 surges to 70%25%
A US‑brokered ceasefire reduced immediate war pressure, but the lack of a concrete peace deal lowered expectations of a Trump‑Putin meeting, pushing the market toward “No meeting.”
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Vatican, sends critical message to Putin
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 91%11%
Trump and Zelenskyy had a private meeting at the Vatican, after which Trump publicly criticized Putin's missile strikes, signaling strained relations and diminishing chances of a Trump-Putin meeting soon.
Trump‑Xi summit held in Beijing
China plunges to 5%15%
The actual Trump‑Xi meeting confirmed Beijing as the venue for the highest‑level US‑China dialogue, virtually eliminating the China outcome and boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Trump meets Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Washington, D.C.
Japan dips to 0%2%
President Donald Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to strengthen U.S.-Japan relations and discuss economic and security cooperation. This event influenced market speculation about Japan as a potential meeting location, though no Trump-Putin meeting occurred there.
Trump and Putin discuss Ukraine and Iran wars in phone call
No meeting by June 30 rises to 76%4%
Trump and Putin held a phone call discussing proposals to end the war in Iran and the military situation in Ukraine, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no in-person meeting.
Trump and Putin hold first phone call of 2026 discussing Middle East and Ukraine
Trump initiated a businesslike and constructive phone call with Putin, discussing peace prospects but no in-person meeting was arranged, keeping market expectations for a meeting low.
Trump and Putin hold phone call to discuss Iran war and Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 rises to 64%4%
On March 9, 2026, Trump and Putin had a phone call discussing the war in Iran and Ukraine, indicating ongoing communication but no in-person meeting. This maintained market uncertainty about a physical meeting.
Trump‑Putin meeting rumored at Gulf summit in Doha
Gulf country drops to 30%8%
Leaks suggested a possible Trump‑Putin encounter at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit, briefly raising the Gulf‑country outcome.
Putin arrives in New Delhi on a state visit aimed at bolstering Russia‑India ties
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 80%7%
A report that Putin was visiting India for a state visit was interpreted as a sign that his diplomatic itinerary was full, reducing the likelihood of a Trump‑Putin meeting and pushing the “no meeting” price higher.
Trump and Putin discuss Iran war and other issues in phone call
No meeting by June 30 rises to 62%4%
A phone conversation between Trump and Putin covered the war in Iran and other international issues, indicating ongoing communication but no scheduled in-person meeting.
Kremlin says Trump‑Putin call discussed Iran war
Gulf country jumps to 12%10%
The Kremlin reported that Trump and Putin held a two‑hour call discussing the Iran war, reigniting market expectations of a direct meeting, especially in a Gulf state, briefly raising the "Gulf country" price.
Trump discusses potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy including Putin
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 59%5%
On February 25, 2026, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised market hopes for a meeting but no concrete plans emerged, keeping probabilities moderate.
China reports 14.1% jump in April exports ahead of Trump‑Xi summit
China drops to 20%10%
Strong Chinese export data boosted confidence in a Beijing meeting, further collapsing the China outcome probability.
US‑Russia New START treaty limits reaffirmed by Russia
Russia drops to 32%6%
Russia’s pledge to honor New START if the US does so reduced immediate nuclear tensions, slightly improving the prospect of a meeting in Russia.
Ukraine and Russia hold US-led peace talks in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing conflict
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 81%8%
Despite renewed diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration, including talks involving US envoys, no direct Trump-Putin meeting occurred. The talks highlighted ongoing tensions and Russia's maximalist demands, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Analysis shows Putin dominated 2025 Alaska summit with Trump
A nonverbal analysis of the August 2025 Alaska summit revealed Putin dominated the interaction, suggesting a power imbalance and limited progress, which may have influenced market skepticism about future meetings.
Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev visits US for talks with Trump administration
No meeting by June 30 dips to 2%1%
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy, traveled to the US to meet with members of Trump's administration to discuss peace agreements on Ukraine and economic cooperation, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed meeting between the leaders.
Putin’s envoy to meet Trump officials in Miami
United States jumps to 10%5%
Reuters reported that Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev would travel to Miami for talks with Trump administration officials, reviving the possibility of a U.S.‑based meeting and nudging the “United States” price upward.
Three-way Ukraine peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with Trump’s envoy present
High-level negotiator talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US, with Trump’s envoy present, indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Trump’s envoys meet Putin in Moscow for overnight Ukraine peace talks
No meeting by June 30 dips to 30%1%
Trump’s representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow for extensive talks on Ukraine peace, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, keeping market expectations low for a meeting location.
Putin meets Trump’s envoys in Moscow for Ukraine peace talks
Russian President Putin met with Trump’s special envoys in Moscow to discuss Ukraine peace proposals, emphasizing territorial issues as a key obstacle. This indirect engagement suggested no immediate Trump-Putin meeting, supporting market expectations for no meeting by June 30.
Kremlin confirms Dec 29 Trump‑Putin phone call
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 58%12%
Kremlin aide Ushakov confirmed a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on Dec 29 2025, reinforcing that no in‑person meeting had occurred and pushing “No meeting” higher.
Trump says Putin and he had a two‑hour call and are getting closer to a deal
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 62%5%
Trump announced on Air Force One that he had spoken with Putin for over two hours and that both leaders were “getting a lot closer,” reviving speculation of an imminent meeting and causing a temporary dip in the no‑meeting price.
U.S. and Russian envoys say Davos talks on Trump‑Putin meeting were constructive
Other surges to 23%18%
U.S. and Russian envoys met in Davos and said their talks were "very positive and constructive" regarding a possible Trump‑Putin meeting, lifting the "No meeting" odds.
Putin and Trump hold constructive phone conversation
Putin and Trump had a businesslike and constructive phone call, continuing diplomatic dialogue but without announcing a meeting, keeping market expectations for a meeting low.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos
Russia drops to 38%7%
The high‑profile event brought many world leaders together, including an invitation to Putin, reviving speculation of a Trump‑Putin meeting in a neutral venue and lifting the Russia outcome slightly.
Kremlin aide Ushakov calls Trump‑Putin call constructive
Other jumps to 15%10%
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov praised a phone conversation between Trump and Putin as "business‑like and constructive," reviving speculation of a future face‑to‑face meeting and pushing the market back toward a possible location.
Putin and Trump hold businesslike, constructive phone conversation
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Aide Yuri Ushakov described a recent phone call between Putin and Trump as businesslike and constructive, indicating ongoing dialogue but no confirmed meeting, sustaining market expectations for no meeting by June 30.
Putin aide Ushakov describes Trump-Putin call as businesslike and constructive
No meeting by June 30 dips to 29%3%
A telephone conversation between Trump and Putin was described as frank and constructive by Putin’s aide Ushakov, indicating ongoing dialogue but no scheduled meeting, supporting market expectations of no imminent meeting.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago amid ongoing talks with Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 32%3%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida while continuing talks with Putin, reflecting complex diplomacy but no direct Trump-Putin meeting. This maintained market uncertainty but did not revive meeting expectations.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Putin’s hard‑line statement after stalled U.S.‑led peace talks suggested a deteriorating diplomatic climate, pushing the market back toward a “No meeting” outlook.
Trump meets Zelensky in Florida, continues talks with Putin
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 27%11%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago and maintained diplomatic engagement with Putin, signaling ongoing but inconclusive peace efforts. This sustained diplomatic activity kept market prices for a meeting low, reinforcing expectations of no meeting by June 2026.
Trump hosts Ukrainian President Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago amid ongoing diplomacy
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 30%11%
Trump's meeting with Zelensky was seen as a diplomatic move that indirectly affected perceptions of Trump-Putin relations, with continued communication between Trump and Putin noted but no new meeting announced.
Trump holds phone call with Putin after meeting Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago
No meeting by June 30 surges to 58%24%
Trump spoke with Putin for over two hours following a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, keeping diplomatic channels open but yielding no immediate plans for an in-person summit.
Trump holds productive phone call with Putin before meeting Zelenskyy
Trump reported a "good and very productive" call with Putin ahead of his meeting with Zelenskyy, briefly raising hopes for progress in negotiations.
Trump and Putin hold productive phone call before Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 34%5%
Trump reported a very productive call with Putin ahead of his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, maintaining diplomatic dialogue but no in-person meeting.
Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida after call with Putin
No meeting by June 30 surges to 58%28%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida following a lengthy phone call with Putin, highlighting Trump's ongoing mediation efforts but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, sustaining market expectations of no meeting.
Trump and Putin hold lengthy phone call, agree to establish working groups
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 30%13%
Trump and Putin had a significant phone conversation agreeing to create working groups on security and economic cooperation, signaling diplomatic engagement but no in-person meeting, supporting the market's move toward 'No meeting'.
Trump says phone call with Putin was ‘excellent’
Other jumps to 8%5%
Trump claimed a “great progress” phone call with Putin, briefly reviving expectations of a meeting and nudging the “Other” price upward before the market re‑asserted the likelihood of no face‑to‑face encounter.
Trump meets Zelenskyy, expresses optimism for peace deal involving Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 35%3%
Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy raised hopes for a peace deal that would require Putin’s agreement, but no direct Trump-Putin meeting was reported, sustaining market skepticism.
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon talks with Putin in Moscow
No meeting by June 30 surges to 56%24%
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for marathon talks, confirming that no direct Trump‑Putin meeting was scheduled and pushing the market back toward a “no meeting” outlook.
Trump‑Xi summit scheduled in Beijing
China plunges to 30%19%
News that Trump would meet Xi in Beijing heightened expectations of a China venue for a Trump‑Putin encounter, sharply reducing the China outcome probability.
Trump envoys meet Putin in Moscow
Russia jumps to 12%7%
Trump’s special envoys met Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow. The face‑to‑face contact renewed speculation of a future Kremlin‑based meeting, lifting the “Russia” option and dampening “No meeting”.
Trump envoys meet Putin in Moscow, report 'reasonably good meeting'
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 29%10%
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, maintaining market uncertainty about a future meeting location.
Trump’s envoys meet Putin in Kremlin for talks on Ukraine ceasefire
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 29%9%
Trump’s representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for around five hours, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed meeting between Trump and Putin.
Trump announces framework for Greenland deal, drops NATO tariff threat
Other EU country drops to 40%6%
The announcement shifted attention to the Arctic and reduced pressure on European allies, lowering the perceived need for a Trump‑Putin meeting in Europe and nudging the market toward a Gulf or Russia outcome.
Kremlin confirms possibility of Trump-Putin meeting at APEC summit in China
China drops to 0%7%
Dmitri Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, acknowledged the theoretical possibility of a meeting between Trump and Putin at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, in November 2025. However, no meeting occurred, leading to a decline in the China outcome probability to zero.
Putin arrives in India for state visit
Gulf country drops to 38%8%
Putin’s India trip was seen as a signal that he was focusing on non‑Western partners, increasing speculation that a Trump‑Putin meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country during the visit.
US cancels Budapest summit after Russia's hardline demands on Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 50%12%
Following Russia's firm stance on territorial concessions and other demands, the US cancelled the planned Budapest summit. This reinforced market skepticism about any near-term meeting between Trump and Putin.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit citing stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 0%43%
Trump publicly announced cancellation of the planned summit with Putin due to lack of progress in diplomatic efforts, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
Trump cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin
No meeting by June 30 drops to 13%5%
Trump canceled the planned Budapest meeting due to Russia's refusal to compromise on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in any location other than no meeting.
Trump cancels Budapest summit with Putin over stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 surges to 17%15%
Trump cancelled the planned Budapest meeting due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing the market to sharply reduce the probability of a meeting in Hungary or Belarus.
Trump confirms cancellation of Budapest summit with Putin
Other EU country plunges to 45%36%
Donald Trump officially confirmed to reporters that the planned meeting in Hungary was cancelled because negotiations had stalled.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 32%14%
Trump canceled the planned Budapest summit with Putin due to Russia's refusal to compromise on maximalist claims regarding Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for any meeting other than the already held Alaska summit.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over Russia's maximalist Ukraine claims
Other plunges to 0%44%
Trump canceled the planned summit in Budapest due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a meeting in Hungary or Russia.
Trump officially cancels Budapest summit with Putin as negotiations freeze
Other EU country rises to 43%2%
Trump confirmed to reporters that the proposed meeting in Hungary was cancelled because negotiations had stalled, driving down the 'Other EU country' price further.
Trump cancels planned Budapest meeting with Putin
Belarus plunges to 0%49%
Trump canceled the proposed summit in Budapest due to stalled negotiations and Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing market prices for a Budapest meeting to collapse.
Trump cancels planned Budapest meeting with Putin
No meeting by June 30 surges to 93%44%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to stalled negotiations and Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine. This led to a sharp decline in market prices for all meeting location options and a rise in the 'No meeting by June 30' option.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 16%27%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp market decline for the Budapest meeting outcome.
Trump cancels Budapest summit with Putin over stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 0%46%
Trump cancelled the planned Budapest summit after Russia refused to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing market confidence in a meeting in 'Other EU country' to collapse.
White House official says no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 30%12%
A White House official announced there were no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in the immediate future, effectively canceling the expected summit in Hungary. This caused market prices for meeting locations to drop sharply.
Trump pulls Budapest summit, cites Russian refusal
No meeting by June 30 surges to 70%25%
Trump cancelled the Budapest summit after Putin refused to soften maximalist demands, returning market odds to “No meeting” and pushing the “Gulf country” option briefly up as traders speculated on a Saudi‑hosted venue.
Trump Cancels Proposed Budapest Summit with Putin Over Stalled Negotiations
No meeting by June 30 rises to 17%3%
Donald Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest meeting, citing Russia's refusal to back down from its maximalist claims on Ukraine.
Trump cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin due to stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 0%44%
Trump cancelled the planned Budapest meeting after Russia refused to soften its maximalist positions on Ukraine, causing a sharp drop in the probability of a meeting in Hungary and other EU countries.
Trump cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin due to stalled negotiations
Other drops to 0%5%
Trump announced the cancellation of the Budapest summit after Russia refused to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere soon.
Trump cancels second meeting with Putin in Budapest due to stalled negotiations
Turkey drops to 1%9%
Plans for the Budapest summit were cancelled as Russia refused to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing market confidence in a meeting in Turkey to collapse further.
Trump-Putin summit in Budapest is called off
Other EU country plunges to 47%36%
Plans for the second summit in Hungary rapidly dissolved and were called off due to Russia's refusal to budge from its maximalist positions on Ukraine, causing the 'Other EU country' option to crash.
Trump’s second meeting with Putin is off, citing Russia’s maximalist war demands
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 13%16%
Reports confirmed the cancellation of the second summit due to Russia's inflexible positions on Ukraine, reinforcing market belief that no further meetings would occur soon.
Trump-Putin Budapest summit cancelled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 20%9%
The planned Budapest summit was called off as Russia refused to budge from maximalist positions on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere soon.
Trump-Putin Budapest summit canceled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 rises to 35%3%
Plans for the Budapest summit were called off as Russia refused to budge on maximalist demands, leading to a collapse in market confidence for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere.
White House announces no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting, Budapest summit shelved
No meeting by June 30 surges to 99%81%
On October 21, 2025, the White House announced that there were no plans for a meeting between Trump and Putin in the immediate future, effectively shelving the planned Budapest summit. This followed a phone call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that failed to produce progress, and Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine.
Trump-Putin second summit in Budapest called off amid Russian refusal to budge
No meeting by June 30 surges to 35%20%
Plans for a second summit between Trump and Putin in Budapest were cancelled due to Russia's refusal to compromise on key issues related to Ukraine, causing a sharp drop in market prices for a meeting in Other EU country and increasing the probability of no meeting by June 30.
Planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest cancelled after stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 17%13%
The White House announced that the planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest was cancelled following a call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Russia maintained its maximalist claims on Ukraine, and no immediate ceasefire was agreed upon, leading to the shelving of the summit and a decline in market expectations for a meeting.
Plans for Trump-Putin Budapest summit shelved amid stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 35%14%
The planned Budapest summit was cancelled due to Russia's refusal to compromise on Ukraine war terms, causing the market to sharply reduce the probability of a meeting in Hungary and increase 'No meeting' odds.
White House says no plans for Trump-Putin meeting in immediate future
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 29%13%
A White House official announced that there were no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in the immediate future, confirming the cancellation of the Budapest summit and reducing market expectations for any near-term meeting.
White House calls off planned Budapest summit between Trump and Putin
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 14%11%
A White House official announced that the planned summit in Hungary was off due to Russia's refusal to budge from its maximalist positions on Ukraine.
White House announces no plans for immediate Trump-Putin meeting, Budapest summit canceled
After a phone call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the White House announced there were no plans for Trump and Putin to meet in the immediate future, effectively canceling the planned Budapest summit. This led to a sharp decline in market prices for all meeting location options except 'No meeting by June 30'.
Planned Trump-Putin Budapest summit canceled amid stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 35%14%
The White House announced that the planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest was canceled after Secretary of State Marco Rubio's call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov failed to yield progress. This dashed market hopes for a second meeting and caused a sharp decline in prices for meeting locations other than 'No meeting by June 30'.
Planned second Trump-Putin summit in Budapest canceled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 35%14%
The planned summit in Budapest was called off as Russia refused to budge from its maximalist positions on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere.
White House says no plans for immediate Trump-Putin meeting, cancels Budapest summit
Other EU country plunges to 0%43%
After initial plans, the White House announced no immediate meeting with Putin would occur, citing stalled negotiations and a productive call between Secretary Rubio and Lavrov, causing the market to drop the Budapest meeting probability to zero.
Second Trump-Putin summit called off amid diplomatic impasse
Reports confirmed the second summit between Trump and Putin was off due to Russia's maximalist positions, reinforcing market expectations that no further meetings would occur soon.
Proposed Trump-Putin Summit in Budapest Stalls and Is Called Off
Other EU country plunges to 38%46%
The planned second summit between Trump and Putin in Hungary was called off due to Russia's refusal to budge from its maximalist positions on Ukraine. This caused the 'Other EU country' option to plummet and 'No meeting by June 30' to begin recovering.
Plans for second Trump-Putin summit in Budapest are called off
No meeting by June 30 surges to 19%16%
The proposed Budapest summit was canceled just days after its announcement due to Russia's refusal to compromise on its maximalist demands regarding Ukraine, causing the 'No meeting' option to rebound.
White House says no immediate Trump‑Putin meeting planned
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 30%40%
A senior White House official said there were “no plans for an immediate Trump‑Putin meeting”, which caused a sharp drop in the “Other”, “Turkey”, and “Gulf country” odds and a jump back toward “No meeting”.
White House cancels planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest
No meeting by June 30 surges to 82%33%
The planned summit in Budapest was canceled after Russian hardline demands on Ukraine stalled negotiations. The White House stated there were no plans for a meeting in the immediate future, leading to a collapse in market prices for the Budapest and other meeting location options.
Plans for Trump-Putin talks in Budapest shelved
Belarus dips to 0%2%
White House officials confirmed there were no plans for a Trump-Putin summit in the immediate future, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts and diminishing chances of a meeting in Hungary.
Trump Announces Plans to Meet Putin in Budapest Following Lengthy Phone Call
Other EU country surges to 84%65%
President Donald Trump announced that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a phone call to meet in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This sparked a massive surge in the 'Other EU country' option.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other drops to 5%13%
After a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest within weeks
Turkey dips to 44%2%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest to discuss ending the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary, temporarily lowering the probability of no meeting by June 30.
Trump says he will meet Putin in Budapest
Other EU country surges to 45%30%
Trump announced on TruthSocial that a second summit with Putin would take place in Budapest “within two weeks or so”. The prospect of a meeting in a non‑U.S. venue moved market prices sharply toward the “Other EU country” outcome and away from “No meeting”.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest after productive call
Other EU country dips to 43%3%
Following a lengthy and productive phone call, Donald Trump announced plans to meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to continue talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Preparations for the summit were underway, raising market expectations for a meeting in an Other EU country.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
No meeting by June 30 surges to 29%16%
Following a two-hour phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting, reflected in price movements, but the summit was later cancelled due to stalled negotiations.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other EU country jumps to 53%7%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans for a summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This raised market expectations for a meeting in an Other EU country. However, the meeting was contingent on progress in negotiations and was seen as a potential breakthrough.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin within two weeks
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 13%19%
After a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting, reflected in price movements.
Trump says a second summit with Putin will be in Budapest within two weeks
Other plunges to 0%49%
Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to be held within two weeks, raising expectations of a second meeting and pushing the "Other" and "Turkey" prices lower while the "No meeting" price rose as the market priced the risk of cancellation.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest after productive call
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 30%10%
Following a more than two-hour phone call described as productive, President Trump announced plans to meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This announcement briefly raised market expectations for a second Trump-Putin meeting, causing price movements in the market.
Trump announces Budapest summit with Putin
Other EU country jumps to 45%13%
Trump announced a second summit in Budapest, Hungary, within two weeks, reviving market hopes for a meeting and causing the “Other EU country” price to spike briefly.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest
Other plunges to 18%31%
Following a lengthy phone call, Trump announced plans for a second meeting with Putin in Budapest to continue discussions on ending the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary, temporarily affecting probabilities.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest to discuss the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned second summit with Putin in Budapest
Belarus surges to 49%47%
After a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a second summit would take place in Budapest within two weeks, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned second summit with Putin in Budapest
Other surges to 18%18%
Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Budapest within two weeks, raising market expectations for another meeting, but the location was different from Alaska.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin
After a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest
Belarus surges to 49%47%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans for a summit in Budapest within two weeks to continue discussions on ending the war in Ukraine, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned second meeting with Putin in Budapest
Ukraine surges to 49%36%
Following a two-hour phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans to meet again in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This announcement briefly raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin to discuss Ukraine war
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans for a second summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This raised market expectations for another meeting location, temporarily affecting prices for the Budapest option.
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest after productive phone call
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 2%30%
President Donald Trump announced that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a two-hour phone call to hold a summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
Trump says he will meet Putin in Budapest within two weeks after long phone call
Other surges to 49%36%
Trump announced on TruthSocial that he had spoken with Putin on a two‑hour call and would meet him in Budapest within two weeks. The announcement sparked a sharp rise in the "Other" and "United States" market prices as traders priced in a near‑term meeting.
Trump announces upcoming summit with Putin in Budapest following productive phone call
Other EU country surges to 87%68%
Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he and Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, causing a massive surge in the 'Other EU country' outcome.
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other drops to 12%8%
Following a lengthy phone call, Donald Trump announced a proposed summit with Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This sparked a brief surge in expectations for a meeting in a third country ('Other').
Trump Announces Upcoming Peace Summit with Putin in Budapest
Other drops to 5%13%
Following a productive two-hour phone call, Donald Trump announced that he would meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
Revelation of Secret Phone Calls Between Trump and Putin
No meeting by June 30 dips to 32%3%
Bob Woodward's book revealed secret phone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, fueling speculation about their communications but not confirming any in-person meeting, which influenced early market uncertainty.
Trump‑Putin phone call discussed cease‑fire in Kyiv
Russia drops to 45%11%
President Trump said he secured a one‑week pause on Russian strikes on Kyiv after a phone call with Putin, raising hopes of direct talks and moving the market away from a Gulf‑state meeting toward a possible Russia meeting.
Trump says he asked Putin not to target Kyiv for one week during brutal cold spell
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Trump publicly claimed that Putin had agreed not to target Kyiv for a week during a severe cold spell, signalling a direct communication line between the two leaders and fuelling market expectations of a forthcoming meeting.
NATO leaders express concern over Trump-Putin summit plans
NATO officials voiced fears that Trump's meeting with Putin could undermine alliances and signal US displeasure with NATO, increasing geopolitical tensions and reducing likelihood of a meeting in NATO countries.
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