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Politica·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politica·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 36%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%

Polymarket

$354,626 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 36%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%

Polymarket

$354,626 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$18,860 Vol.

36%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,113 Vol.

30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,802 Vol.

10%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,371 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,648 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,766 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$18,804 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$18,845 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$11,825 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,150 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus places UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Colombia President Gustavo Petro as the leading candidates to exit office before 2027, driven by persistent domestic challenges in both countries. Starmer faces legislative resistance and economic pressures that could trigger an early general election or internal party shifts, while Petro contends with congressional opposition and approval volatility that raise prospects for constitutional or electoral removal. These factors sustain a close race between the top two outcomes, where modest changes in parliamentary support or polling trends could widen the gap. Scheduled legislative sessions and regional elections through late 2026 represent key catalysts that may clarify which leader encounters the first decisive setback.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$354,626
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus places UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Colombia President Gustavo Petro as the leading candidates to exit office before 2027, driven by persistent domestic challenges in both countries. Starmer faces legislative resistance and economic pressures that could trigger an early general election or internal party shifts, while Petro contends with congressional opposition and approval volatility that raise prospects for constitutional or electoral removal. These factors sustain a close race between the top two outcomes, where modest changes in parliamentary support or polling trends could widen the gap. Scheduled legislative sessions and regional elections through late 2026 represent key catalysts that may clarify which leader encounters the first decisive setback.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$354,626
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 24 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Starmer - UK PM" a 36%, seguito da "Petro - Colombia President" a 30%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 36¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ha generato $354.6K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", esplora i 24 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" è "Starmer - UK PM" a 36%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Petro - Colombia President" a 30%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.