Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato180-199 19%
200-219 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
NUOVO
$367,553 Vol.
NUOVO
$367,553 Vol.
3 lug 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
1%
140-159
5%
160-179
13%
180-199
19%
200-219
19%
220-239
16%
240-259
9%
260-279
6%
280-299
5%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 19%
200-219 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
NUOVO
$367,553 Vol.
NUOVO
$367,553 Vol.
3 lug 2026
<20
$6,441 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$6,441 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$9,677 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$2,906 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$3,317 Vol.
1%
120-139
$2,923 Vol.
1%
140-159
$3,113 Vol.
5%
160-179
$2,973 Vol.
13%
180-199
$7,961 Vol.
19%
200-219
$4,433 Vol.
19%
220-239
$2,265 Vol.
16%
240-259
$2,746 Vol.
9%
260-279
$2,005 Vol.
6%
280-299
$2,299 Vol.
5%
300-319
$2,098 Vol.
3%
320-339
$3,637 Vol.
2%
340-359
$8,040 Vol.
1%
360-379
$9,003 Vol.
1%
380-399
$8,769 Vol.
1%
400-419
$13,281 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$20,610 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$55,893 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$57,321 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$54,892 Vol.
<1%
500+
$73,352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$367,553Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$367,553Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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